PAU vs Dunkerque Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: PAU 2-0 Dunkerque.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% PAU, 28% draw, 31% Dunkerque — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAU at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PAU vs Dunkerque
Line-ups
- 1B. MaubleuG
- 2T. PouillyD
- 29G. PaquiezD
- 23A. BriançonD
- 88A. BambaD
- 97A. AbdallahD
- 6C. FallM
- 21J. BenetM
- 18J. SebasM
- 9B. LeyeF
- 19T. SaettelF
- 8S. BasseD
- 10B. BrahimiM
- 4A. DodoteD
- 27L. GadegbekuM
- 11A. LefebvreF
- 56Abdoulaye MbayeF
- 5L. RajotM
- 30E. SallesG
- 39M. TourraineD
- 73Moha AiramG
- 27A. LinguetD
- 26Opa SangantéD
- 22V. MayelaD
- 24L. VallierD
- 6J. MorelM
- 18Théna MassockM
- 7K. AyariM
- 19S. KeitaM
- 11E. PrutsevM
- 9G. RobailF
- 30AbnerM
- 16M. PrévotG
- 33Noah NemorinF
- 94E. MayillaF
- 4B. LagaeD
- 21L. LoussilahoD
- 17P. M. DiengM
- 25Franck AtoenM
- 2O. TouréD
Form going into PAU vs Dunkerque
PAU
Ligue 2
- L0-1away to Montpellier11 September 2026
Dunkerque
Ligue 2
- W2-1Saint Etienne12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PAU | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PAU vs Dunkerque
- 16 January 2026Dunkerque 3–1 PAULigue 2
- 24 October 2025PAU 0–3 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 10 January 2025PAU 1–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 20 September 2024Dunkerque 3–2 PAULigue 2
- 9 March 2024Dunkerque 1–0 PAULigue 2
- 2 December 2023PAU 1–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
Leading scorers: PAU and Dunkerque
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye40
Dunkerque
GoalsAssists
- E. Prutsev31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PAU beat Dunkerque 2–0. The model had made a win for PAU its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jessy Benet (penalty) 49' for PAU, Abdoulaye Mbaye 88' for PAU. Sent off: Victor Mayela (Dunkerque) 11'.
How the call on PAU v Dunkerque has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is PAU's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- PAU win41%▲ +2
- Draw28%=
- Dunkerque win31%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.