Laval
vs
Sochaux
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Laval 1–0 Sochaux
The model makes it 38% Laval, 30% draw, 32% Sochaux — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Laval 1.36, Sochaux 1.17.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Laval vs Sochaux
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Laval wins, grey are draws, red are Sochaux wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Laval at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Laval vs Sochaux
Laval
- L2-3away to Dijon11 September 2026
- L1-2RED Star FC 934 September 2026
- L0-3Grenoble28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Metz22 August 2026
- W2-1Nantes14 August 2026
Sochaux
- W1-0Nantes12 September 2026
- D1-1away to PAU4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot28 August 2026
- W1-0Guingamp21 August 2026
- D0-0away to RED Star FC 9314 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Laval | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Sochaux | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Laval vs Sochaux
- 22 April 2023Laval 2–1 SochauxLigue 2
- 2 September 2022Sochaux 4–1 LavalLigue 2
- 17 February 2017Sochaux 1–1 LavalLigue 2
- 20 September 2016Laval 1–1 SochauxLigue 2
- 8 April 2016Laval 1–2 SochauxLigue 2
- 24 November 2015Sochaux 0–0 LavalLigue 2
Leading scorers: Laval and Sochaux
Laval
- E. Clavreul2 goals3 assists
- M. Houdayer2 goals
Sochaux
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Laval carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.43 for Sochaux. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Laval and 1.17 for Sochaux. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Laval rate 0.61 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sochaux rate 0.59 and 1.37.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sochaux, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Laval a 0% chance of the title and Sochaux 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Laval the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Laval against 1.17 for Sochaux. Laval's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.37 for Sochaux.