San Diego
vs
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: San Diego 1–0 Houston Dynamo
The model makes it 39% San Diego, 30% draw, 31% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: San Diego 1.41, Houston Dynamo 1.14.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- San Diego are 12th on 32 points from 27 games; Houston Dynamo are 5th on 44 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- San Diego have not won in their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Austin.
- Houston Dynamo are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Sporting Kansas City.
- Last 3 meetings: Houston Dynamo 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Houston Dynamo 1–0 San Diego.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Diego at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
San Diego
- D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
- L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
Houston Dynamo
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
What these results say
- San Diego did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
- Houston Dynamo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
- 23 April 2026Houston Dynamo 1–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2025Houston Dynamo 2–4 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2025San Diego 3–4 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and Houston Dynamo
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen12 goals3 assists
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme14 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Diego carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.54 for Houston Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for San Diego and 1.14 for Houston Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Diego rate 0.72 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Houston Dynamo rate 0.53 and 1.07.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Houston Dynamo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Diego a 0% chance of the title and Houston Dynamo 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Diego the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for San Diego against 1.14 for Houston Dynamo. San Diego's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.07 for Houston Dynamo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
San Diego at home · Houston Dynamo away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: San Diego 27, Houston Dynamo 27.
San Diego score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Houston Dynamo have let in 3 there.
Houston Dynamo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); San Diego have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
San Diego
- at Los Angeles Galaxy18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 35%
- vs Seattle Sounders25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 42%
- at Vancouver Whitecaps29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 23%
- at St. Louis City31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
Houston Dynamo
- vs FC Dallas18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 38%
- vs Minnesota United FC25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 43%
- at Seattle Sounders29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- at Portland Timbers2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.