Reading
vs
Bradford
League One prediction
Our model says: Reading 1–0 Bradford
The model makes it 39% Reading, 31% draw, 30% Bradford — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Reading 1.27, Bradford 0.96.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Reading vs Bradford
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Reading at 39% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Reading vs Bradford
Reading
- W2-0Notts County19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Cambridge United12 September 2026
- W3-1Blackpool5 September 2026
- W5-0Mansfield Town2 September 2026
- D0-0away to AFC Wimbledon22 August 2026
Bradford
- W1-0away to Luton19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Notts County12 September 2026
- W1-0Mansfield Town5 September 2026
- L1-2Cambridge United1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Plymouth29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Reading | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 10 |
| 1 | Bradford | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Reading vs Bradford
- 28 February 2026Reading 2–1 BradfordLeague One
- 13 December 2025Bradford 2–0 ReadingLeague One
- 16 March 2015Reading 3–0 BradfordFA Cup
- 7 March 2015Bradford 0–0 ReadingFA Cup
Leading scorers: Reading and Bradford
Reading
- J. Marriott8 goals
Bradford
No player in League One's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Reading carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.38 for Bradford. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Reading and 0.96 for Bradford. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Reading rate 0.66 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bradford rate 0.46 and 1.26.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bradford, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Reading a 6.9% chance of the title and Bradford 7.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Reading the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Reading against 0.96 for Bradford. Reading's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.26 for Bradford.