Leyton Orient
vs
Plymouth
League One prediction
Our model says: Leyton Orient 1–2 Plymouth
The model makes it 34% Leyton Orient, 28% draw, 38% Plymouth — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.49, Plymouth 1.66.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Leyton Orient vs Plymouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plymouth at 38% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leyton Orient vs Plymouth
Leyton Orient
- W1-0Stevenage19 September 2026
- L2-3Wycombe12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Luton5 September 2026
- W5-0away to Bromley1 September 2026
- L1-3Barnsley29 August 2026
Plymouth
- W4-2away to Blackpool19 September 2026
- W3-0Barnsley12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Doncaster5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leicester1 September 2026
- W2-0Bradford29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Leyton Orient | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Plymouth | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leyton Orient vs Plymouth
- 17 February 2026Leyton Orient 1–3 PlymouthLeague One
- 2 December 2025Leyton Orient 0–1 PlymouthEFL Trophy
- 19 August 2025Plymouth 0–1 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 8 August 2023Plymouth 2–0 Leyton OrientLeague Cup
- 15 September 2020Leyton Orient 3–2 PlymouthLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Leyton Orient and Plymouth
Leyton Orient
- Y. Akhamrich3 goals2 assists
Plymouth
- A. Pepple3 goals
- O. Irow3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Leyton Orient carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.42 for Plymouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.66 for Plymouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leyton Orient rate 0.56 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plymouth rate 0.73 and 1.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leyton Orient a 0.6% chance of the title and Plymouth 31.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plymouth the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Leyton Orient against 1.66 for Plymouth. Leyton Orient's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.75 for Plymouth.