Peterborough
vs
Notts County
League One postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 35% Peterborough, 31% draw, 34% Notts County — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Peterborough 1.23, Notts County 1.20.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Peterborough and Notts County are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Model insights: Peterborough vs Notts County
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Peterborough at 35% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Peterborough vs Notts County
Peterborough
- L0-2Doncaster19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Milton Keynes Dons12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Wednesday5 September 2026
- D0-0Stevenage1 September 2026
- L0-4away to Blackpool29 August 2026
Notts County
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
- L0-1Bradford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huddersfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Doncaster1 September 2026
- W2-1Burton Albion29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Peterborough | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Peterborough vs Notts County
- 30 November 2024Peterborough 4–3 Notts CountyFA Cup
- 3 August 2024Peterborough 4–3 Notts CountyFriendlies Clubs
- 20 December 2016Peterborough 2–0 Notts CountyFA Cup
- 4 December 2016Notts County 2–2 PeterboroughFA Cup
- 24 January 2015Notts County 1–2 PeterboroughLeague One
Leading scorers: Peterborough and Notts County
Peterborough
No player in League One's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Notts County
- O. Cooper3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Peterborough carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.22 for Notts County. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Peterborough and 1.20 for Notts County. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Peterborough rate 0.48 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Notts County rate 0.47 and 1.68.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Notts County, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Peterborough a 0% chance of the title and Notts County 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Peterborough the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Peterborough against 1.2 for Notts County. Peterborough's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.68 for Notts County.