Round of 32 · 16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Rapperswil vs FC St. Gallen Schweizer Cup prediction

Rapperswil-Jona

Our model says: Rapperswil 1–2 FC St. Gallen

The model makes it 21% Rapperswil, 24% draw, 55% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Rapperswil 1.06, FC St. Gallen 2.01.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: High.

One-sided: FC St. Gallen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Rapperswil are 7th in Challenge League on 10 points from 10 games; FC St. Gallen are 4th in Super League on 16 points from 10 games.
  • Rapperswil have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
  • FC St. Gallen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lausanne.
  • Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 December 2025, ended Rapperswil 0–0 FC St. Gallen.

Chance to go through

Schweizer Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • Rapperswil19%
  • Level after ninety minutes22%
  • FC St. Gallen59%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

More Schweizer Cup predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rapperswil vs FC St. Gallen

57%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rapperswil win Draw FC St. Gallen win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 1–210%
  3. 0–29%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 1–37%
  6. 0–36%
  7. 2–25%

Scores read Rapperswil first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 44%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC St. Gallen at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Rapperswil vs FC St. Gallen

Rapperswil

  • L0-3Stade Lausanne-Ouchy9 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Neuchatel Xamax FC18 September 2026
  • W2-0Yverdon Sport11 September 2026
  • L2-3away to FC Aarau4 September 2026
  • D1-1SC Kriens1 September 2026

FC St. Gallen

  • W1-0Lausanne11 October 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Basel 189320 September 2026
  • L1-4away to FC Lugano16 September 2026
  • L0-3FC Sion12 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Servette FC6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Rapperswil scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC St. Gallen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Rapperswil and FC St. Gallen in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
7RapperswilChallenge League103161519-410
4FC St. GallenSuper League105141719-216

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Challenge League · Super League

Head-to-head: Rapperswil vs FC St. Gallen

  • 3 December 2025Rapperswil 0–0 FC St. GallenSchweizer Cup
  • 6 July 2024Rapperswil 3–1 FC St. GallenFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 June 2021FC St. Gallen 5–0 RapperswilFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rapperswil and FC St. Gallen

Rapperswil

No player in Challenge League's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

FC St. Gallen

GoalsAssists

  • A. Balde31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Rapperswil carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.52 for FC St. Gallen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Rapperswil and 2.01 for FC St. Gallen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Rapperswil rate 0.49 in attack and 2.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Gallen rate 0.68 and 1.33.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC St. Gallen the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Rapperswil against 2.01 for FC St. Gallen. Rapperswil's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.33 for FC St. Gallen.

Season stats

RapperswilFC St. Gallen
10Matches10
3W 1D 6LRecord5W 1D 4L
15 1.5 per gameGoals scored17 1.7 per game
19 1.9 per gameGoals conceded19 1.9 per game
2 of 10Clean sheets2 of 10
3 of 10Failed to score2 of 10
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
23 2.3 per gameYellow cards19 1.9 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 1×Usual shape3-1-4-2 6×

Rapperswil at home · FC St. Gallen away

5Played5
1W 1D 3LRecord3W 0D 2L
7–11Goals for – against9–9
1 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, this season — Rapperswil in the Challenge League, FC St. Gallen in the Super League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Rapperswil 10 in the Challenge League, FC St. Gallen 10 in the Super League.

Rapperswil scored 330333
FC St. Gallen conceded 415711
FC St. Gallen scored 311264
Rapperswil conceded 413524

FC St. Gallen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Rapperswil have let in 2 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Rapperswil

  • at FC WIL 190023 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 31%
  • vs Stade Nyonnais30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 60%
  • at SC Kriens6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 22%
  • vs FC Aarau20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 30%
  • at FC Winterthur27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 21%

FC St. Gallen

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.