FC Winterthur
vs
FC Luzern
Schweizer Cup prediction
Our model says: FC Winterthur 1–2 FC Luzern
The model makes it 33% FC Winterthur, 26% draw, 41% FC Luzern — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Winterthur 1.41, FC Luzern 1.66.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Luzern: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Winterthur are 3rd in Challenge League on 18 points from 10 games; FC Luzern are 8th in Super League on 12 points from 10 games.
- FC Winterthur have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Neuchatel Xamax FC.
- FC Luzern have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to FC Lugano.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Luzern 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 July 2026, ended FC Luzern 3–2 FC Winterthur.
Chance to go through
Schweizer Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- FC Winterthur32%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- FC Luzern43%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Schweizer Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Luzern at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern
FC Winterthur
- L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
- W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Étoile Carouge11 September 2026
- W4-0Neuchatel Xamax FC4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Nyonnais1 September 2026
FC Luzern
- L0-4away to FC Lugano10 October 2026
- W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026
- L2-4FC Basel 189313 September 2026
- D3-3away to BSC Young Boys5 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Winterthur scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Winterthur had three goals or more.
- FC Luzern conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Luzern had three goals or more.
- FC Luzern scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Winterthur and FC Luzern in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Winterthur | Challenge League | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 18 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | Super League | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 12 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Challenge League · Super League
Head-to-head: FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern
- 4 July 2026FC Luzern 3–2 FC WinterthurFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2026FC Winterthur 0–3 FC LuzernSuper League
- 15 March 2026FC Luzern 1–2 FC WinterthurSuper League
- 29 November 2025FC Luzern 1–3 FC WinterthurSuper League
- 25 October 2025FC Winterthur 2–2 FC LuzernSuper League
- 9 February 2025FC Luzern 3–2 FC WinterthurSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Winterthur and FC Luzern
FC Winterthur
No player in Challenge League's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
FC Luzern
GoalsAssists
- D. Mikołajewski43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Winterthur carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.46 for FC Luzern. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for FC Winterthur and 1.66 for FC Luzern. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Winterthur rate 0.54 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Luzern rate 0.73 and 1.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Luzern the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FC Winterthur against 1.66 for FC Luzern. FC Winterthur's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.61 for FC Luzern.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Winterthur at home · FC Luzern away
League matches only, this season — FC Winterthur in the Challenge League, FC Luzern in the Super League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Winterthur 10 in the Challenge League, FC Luzern 10 in the Super League.
FC Winterthur score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Luzern have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Winterthur
- vs Stade Nyonnais23 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 69%
- at FC WIL 19001 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 40%
- vs Étoile Carouge7 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 56%
- at Yverdon Sport20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
- vs Rapperswil27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 56%
FC Luzern
- at FC Zurich24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 38%
- vs FC Sion31 Oct · Super Leaguewin 33%
- vs BSC Young Boys7 Nov · Super Leaguewin 32%
- at FC Basel 189322 Nov · Super Leaguewin 35%
- vs FC Lugano29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.