FC Aarau
vs
FC Zurich
Schweizer Cup prediction
Our model says: FC Aarau 1–0 FC Zurich
The model makes it 43% FC Aarau, 28% draw, 29% FC Zurich — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Aarau 1.48, FC Zurich 1.14.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Aarau are 6th in Challenge League on 12 points from 10 games; FC Zurich are 5th in Super League on 14 points from 10 games.
- FC Aarau are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Stade Nyonnais.
- FC Zurich are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to FC Thun.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Zurich 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 July 2021, ended FC Zurich 0–1 FC Aarau.
Chance to go through
Schweizer Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- FC Aarau44%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- FC Zurich29%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Schweizer Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Aarau vs FC Zurich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Aarau at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Aarau vs FC Zurich
FC Aarau
- L1-2away to Stade Nyonnais9 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026
- D2-2SC Kriens12 September 2026
- W3-2Rapperswil4 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC WIL 190031 August 2026
FC Zurich
- W4-2FC Thun10 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Grasshoppers5 September 2026
- L2-4BSC Young Boys1 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Aarau scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Aarau conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Aarau had three goals or more.
- FC Zurich scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Zurich.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Aarau and FC Zurich in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | Super League | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Challenge League · Super League
Head-to-head: FC Aarau vs FC Zurich
- 3 July 2021FC Zurich 0–1 FC AarauFriendlies Clubs
- 9 June 2020FC Zurich 5–1 FC AarauFriendlies Clubs
- 4 May 2017FC Aarau 3–1 FC ZurichChallenge League
- 17 April 2017FC Zurich 3–2 FC AarauChallenge League
- 6 November 2016FC Zurich 6–3 FC AarauChallenge League
Leading scorers: FC Aarau and FC Zurich
FC Aarau
No player in Challenge League's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
FC Zurich
GoalsAssists
- U. Emmanuel43
- P. Keny41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Aarau carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.34 for FC Zurich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for FC Aarau and 1.14 for FC Zurich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Aarau rate 0.55 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Zurich rate 0.60 and 1.65.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Aarau the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Aarau against 1.14 for FC Zurich. FC Aarau's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.65 for FC Zurich.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Aarau at home · FC Zurich away
League matches only, this season — FC Aarau in the Challenge League, FC Zurich in the Super League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Aarau 10 in the Challenge League, FC Zurich 10 in the Super League.
FC Zurich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); FC Aarau have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Aarau
- vs Étoile Carouge24 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 60%
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 42%
- vs FC WIL 19006 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 61%
- at Rapperswil20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 43%
- at SC Kriens27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 35%
FC Zurich
- vs FC Luzern24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 38%
- at BSC Young Boys1 Nov · Super Leaguewin 15%
- at Servette FC8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 22%
- vs FC St. Gallen22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 33%
- at FC Vaduz28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.