Stade Nyonnais
vs
FC Basel 1893
Schweizer Cup prediction
Our model says: Stade Nyonnais 0–2 FC Basel 1893
The model makes it 15% Stade Nyonnais, 24% draw, 61% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 6.67, 4.17 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 0.74, FC Basel 1893 1.98.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Basel 1893 are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stade Nyonnais are bottom in Challenge League on 5 points from 10 games; FC Basel 1893 are 7th in Super League on 13 points from 10 games.
- Stade Nyonnais have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Aarau.
- FC Basel 1893 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to FC Vaduz.
Chance to go through
Schweizer Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Stade Nyonnais13%
- Level after ninety minutes21%
- FC Basel 189366%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Schweizer Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Basel 1893 at 61% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893
Stade Nyonnais
- W2-1FC Aarau9 October 2026
- L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026
- L1-3Neuchatel Xamax FC11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Yverdon Sport6 September 2026
- D2-2FC Winterthur1 September 2026
FC Basel 1893
- L0-3away to FC Vaduz11 October 2026
- L1-3FC St. Gallen20 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Luzern13 September 2026
- L1-3FC Lugano6 September 2026
- L1-2FC Sion3 September 2026
What these results say
- Stade Nyonnais conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Stade Nyonnais had three goals or more.
- Stade Nyonnais failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Basel 1893 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Basel 1893 had three goals or more.
- FC Basel 1893 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stade Nyonnais and FC Basel 1893 in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 5 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | Super League | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 13 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Challenge League · Super League
Head-to-head: Stade Nyonnais vs FC Basel 1893
- 15 September 2024Stade Nyonnais 0–1 FC Basel 1893Schweizer Cup
Leading scorers: Stade Nyonnais and FC Basel 1893
Stade Nyonnais
No player in Challenge League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
FC Basel 1893
GoalsAssists
- Ž. Celar61
- A. Sow34
- X. Shaqiri31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Stade Nyonnais carry a model rating of 5.76 against 6.39 for FC Basel 1893. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.74 goals for Stade Nyonnais and 1.98 for FC Basel 1893. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Nyonnais rate 0.30 in attack and 2.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Basel 1893 rate 0.61 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Basel 1893 the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Stade Nyonnais against 1.98 for FC Basel 1893. Stade Nyonnais's attack/defence rating is 0.3/2.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.52 for FC Basel 1893.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stade Nyonnais at home · FC Basel 1893 away
League matches only, this season — Stade Nyonnais in the Challenge League, FC Basel 1893 in the Super League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Stade Nyonnais 10 in the Challenge League, FC Basel 1893 10 in the Super League.
Stade Nyonnais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); FC Basel 1893 have let in 1 there.
FC Basel 1893 score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Stade Nyonnais have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stade Nyonnais
- at FC Winterthur23 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 11%
- at Rapperswil30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 17%
- vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
- vs FC WIL 190020 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 31%
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
FC Basel 1893
- vs Grasshoppers25 Oct · Super Leaguewin 53%
- at FC Lugano1 Nov · Super Leaguewin 11%
- at FC Thun8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 30%
- vs FC Luzern22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 40%
- at Grasshoppers28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.