Brighton vs Leeds Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Brighton 1-1 Leeds.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Brighton, 28% draw, 26% Leeds — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 46% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brighton vs Leeds
Line-ups
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 24F. KadıoğluD
- 44L. VuškovićD
- 5L. DunkD
- 21O. BoscagliD
- 13P. GroßM
- 26Y. AyariM
- 25D. GómezM
- 35M. YalcouyéM
- 29M. De CuyperM
- 19C. KostoulasF
- 23J. SteeleG
- 3J. HadjamD
- 4P. StruijkD
- 20CostinhaD
- 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
- 15I. OsmanF
- 33M. O'RileyM
- 12P. DavidF
- 49N. OriolaM
- 1J. TraffordG
- 24J. JustinD
- 30N. ElvediD
- 5T. MuharemovićD
- 2J. BogleM
- 18A. StachM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 22A. TanakaM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 19N. OkaforF
- 11B. AaronsonM
- 10H. WilsonF
- 7D. JamesF
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 15J. BijolD
- 26M. BardD
- 16M. ZettererG
- 23J. BahoyaF
- 14L. NmechaF
Form going into Brighton vs Leeds
Brighton
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
- W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026
Leeds
- D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Leeds
- 5 September 2026Brighton 1–1 LeedsPremier League
- 17 May 2026Leeds 1–0 BrightonPremier League
- 1 November 2025Brighton 3–0 LeedsPremier League
- 11 March 2023Leeds 2–2 BrightonPremier League
- 27 August 2022Brighton 1–0 LeedsPremier League
- 15 May 2022Leeds 1–1 BrightonPremier League
Leading scorers: Brighton and Leeds
Brighton
- P. Groß3 goals3 assists
- C. Kostoulas2 goals1 assist
- M. Yalcouyé2 goals
Leeds
- D. Calvert-Lewin3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.