Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Lech Poznan, 20% draw, 26% Cracovia Krakow — fair odds of 1.85, 5.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Mateusz LisG
- 20Robert GumnyD
- 27Wojciech MońkaD
- 59Terry YegbeD
- 15Michal GurgulD
- 24Filip JagiełłoM
- 43Antoni KozubalM
- 10Patrik WålemarkM
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 14Leo BengtssonM
- 9Mikael IshakF
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 22Radosław MurawskiM
- 77Luis PalmaM
- 7Yannick AgneroF
- 17Allahyar SayyadmaneshM
- 33Mateusz PruchniewskiG
- 72Mateusz SkrzypczakD
- 4João MoutinhoD
- 11Daniel HåkansM
- 13Sebastian MadejskiG
- 25Otar KakabadzeD
- 4Gustav HenrikssonD
- 61Brahim TraoréD
- 39Mauro PerkovićD
- 43Mateusz KlichM
- 6Amir Al-AmmariM
- 20Karol KnapM
- 14Ajdin HasićF
- 18Kahveh ZahiroleslamF
- 17Martin MinchevF
- 5Beno SelanM
- 28Vincent BurletD
- 10Filip MarchwińskiM
- 79Dominik PiłaD
- 7Mateusz PraszelikM
- 77Jakub ChrapustaG
- 23Henrich RavasG
- 15Kamil GlikD
- 70Dijon KameriM
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow
Lech Poznan
All competitions we cover
- W4-1away to Aarhus21 July 2026
Cracovia Krakow
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 28 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow
- 7 December 2025Cracovia Krakow 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 18 July 2025Lech Poznan 1–4 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 21 April 2025Lech Poznan 2–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 19 October 2024Cracovia Krakow 0–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 28 April 2024Lech Poznan 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 28 October 2023Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Rodríguez66
- P. Wålemark53
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
Cracovia Krakow
GoalsAssists
- A. Hasić52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lech Poznan at 54% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.77–0.88.