25 July 2026, 18:15 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Lech Poznan, 20% draw, 26% Cracovia Krakow — fair odds of 1.85, 5.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lech Poznan at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
🔁K. Knapout: B. Selan
49'
A. Hasic
M. Ishak
57'
🔁F. Jagielloout: R. Murawski
64'
🔁R. Gumnyout: J. Pereira
64'
🔁L. Bengtssonout: L. Palma
65'
66'
🔁M. Minchevout: V. Burlet
66'
🔁K. Zahiroleslamout: F. Marchwinski
🔁P. Rodriguezout: Y. Agnero
75'
🔁P. Walemarkout: A. Sayyadmanesh
82'
86'
M. Klich
88'
F. Marchwinski
90+1'
🔁M. Klichout: M. Praszelik
90+1'
🔁A. Hasicout: D. Pila

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow

58%Possession42%
18Shots9
7On target1
9Corners6
0.77xG0.88

Goals against chances

Lech Poznan0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Cracovia Krakow0 from 0.88 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1Mateusz LisG
  • 20Robert GumnyD
  • 27Wojciech MońkaD
  • 59Terry YegbeD
  • 15Michal GurgulD
  • 24Filip JagiełłoM
  • 43Antoni KozubalM
  • 10Patrik WålemarkM
  • 21Pablo RodríguezM
  • 14Leo BengtssonM
  • 9Mikael IshakF
Substitutes
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 22Radosław MurawskiM
  • 77Luis PalmaM
  • 7Yannick AgneroF
  • 17Allahyar SayyadmaneshM
  • 33Mateusz PruchniewskiG
  • 72Mateusz SkrzypczakD
  • 4João MoutinhoD
  • 11Daniel HåkansM
Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Cracovia Krakow 4-3-3
  • 13Sebastian MadejskiG
  • 25Otar KakabadzeD
  • 4Gustav HenrikssonD
  • 61Brahim TraoréD
  • 39Mauro PerkovićD
  • 43Mateusz KlichM
  • 6Amir Al-AmmariM
  • 20Karol KnapM
  • 14Ajdin HasićF
  • 18Kahveh ZahiroleslamF
  • 17Martin MinchevF
Substitutes
  • 5Beno SelanM
  • 28Vincent BurletD
  • 10Filip MarchwińskiM
  • 79Dominik PiłaD
  • 7Mateusz PraszelikM
  • 77Jakub ChrapustaG
  • 23Henrich RavasG
  • 15Kamil GlikD
  • 70Dijon KameriM
Coach: Bartosz Grzelak

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow

Lech Poznan

  • W4-1away to Aarhus21 July 2026

Cracovia Krakow

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Lech Poznan7511126+616
12Cracovia Krakow8224711-48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow

  • 7 December 2025Cracovia Krakow 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 18 July 2025Lech Poznan 1–4 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 21 April 2025Lech Poznan 2–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 19 October 2024Cracovia Krakow 0–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 28 April 2024Lech Poznan 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 28 October 2023Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow

Lech Poznan

  • A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals

Cracovia Krakow

  • A. Hasić3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.