Sheriff Tiraspol
vs
FC St. Gallen
The model makes it 29% Sheriff Tiraspol, 21% draw, 50% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 3.45, 4.76 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Sheriff Tiraspol 1.65, FC St. Gallen 2.19.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sheriff Tiraspol
No earlier matches on record this season.
FC St. Gallen
- W3-2away to FC Vaduz2 August 2026
- W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Sheriff Tiraspol
No league goals recorded yet.
FC St. Gallen
- E. Owusu2 goals
- L. Görtler1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sheriff Tiraspol carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.57 for FC St. Gallen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sheriff Tiraspol D-W-L-L; FC St. Gallen W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Sheriff Tiraspol and 2.19 for FC St. Gallen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sheriff Tiraspol rate 0.54 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Gallen rate 0.90 and 1.62.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Gallen the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sheriff Tiraspol against 2.19 for FC St. Gallen. Sheriff Tiraspol's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.62 for FC St. Gallen.