Mladost Lucani
vs
OFK Beograd
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Mladost Lucani 2–1 OFK Beograd
The model makes it 37% Mladost Lucani, 29% draw, 34% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mladost Lucani 1.51, OFK Beograd 1.37.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mladost Lucani at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
Mladost Lucani
- W2-1away to Macva20 September 2026
- L0-5away to Radnicki 192312 September 2026
- W1-0Radnicki NIS5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IMT Novi Beograd30 August 2026
- W3-1FK Partizan23 August 2026
OFK Beograd
- L3-5Radnicki 192319 September 2026
- L1-3away to Radnicki NIS13 September 2026
- D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026
- L1-3away to FK Partizan31 August 2026
- W1-0Zemun22 August 2026
What these results say
- Mladost Lucani conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- OFK Beograd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- OFK Beograd failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- OFK Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
- 1 February 2026Mladost Lucani 0–0 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 23 August 2025OFK Beograd 1–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 11 May 2025OFK Beograd 1–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 24 November 2024OFK Beograd 0–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 20 July 2024Mladost Lucani 1–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd
Mladost Lucani
- Vasil Tasovski4 goals
- João3 goals
OFK Beograd
- Y. Silue6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mladost Lucani carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.19 for OFK Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Mladost Lucani and 1.37 for OFK Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mladost Lucani rate 0.44 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFK Beograd rate 0.56 and 2.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mladost Lucani a 0.1% chance of the title and OFK Beograd 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mladost Lucani the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Mladost Lucani against 1.37 for OFK Beograd. Mladost Lucani's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.13 for OFK Beograd.