12 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd Super Liga prediction & result

Stadion Mladost, Lucani
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Mladost Lucani 0-0 OFK Beograd.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Mladost Lucani, 27% draw, 35% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mladost Lucani at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mladost Lucani4%Draw92%OFK Beograd4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Filip Mladenović
28'
Aleksandar Varjacic
60'
🔁John Maryout: Jovan ciric
63'
68'
Edmund Addo
71'
🔁Strahinja Stojkovićout: A. Vukičević
Branko Jovičić
77'
79'
🔁djordje rankovicout: Aleksa Vasilic
81'
hameed aderoju
🔁vasil tasovskiout: Petar Bojić
84'
87'
🔁hameed aderojuout: Tjay De Barr
🔁Branko Jovičićout: Taras Bondarenko
90+2'

Match stats — Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd

51%Possession49%
8Shots12
0On target2
2Corners7
0.41xG0

Goals against chances

Mladost Lucani0 from 0.41 xGabout what the chances were worth
OFK Beograd0 from 0.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mladost Lucani 5-4-1
  • 1S. StamenkovićG
  • 17A. VarjačićD
  • 7N. AndrićD
  • 30N. ĆirkovićD
  • 33V. JovanovićD
  • 37F. MladenovićD
  • 88Vasil TasovskiM
  • 29D. JovančićM
  • 39J. UzuegbunamM
  • 32B. JovičićM
  • 22JoãoF
Substitutes
  • 9Petar BojićM
  • 14T. BondarenkoD
  • 25J. ĆirićM
  • 44M. CvetkovićD
  • 36D. DjokicM
  • 12M. JoksimovićD
  • 10O. KrsmanovicM
  • 27Nenad RadićM
  • 40Nikola ĆirovićM
Coach: R. Ćurčić
OFK Beograd 3-4-2-1
  • 97N. StojišićG
  • 4A. PavlovicD
  • 14M. MomčilovićD
  • 15N. MarašD
  • 27H. AderojuM
  • 6S. PeñaM
  • 3E. AddoM
  • 2S. DespotovskiM
  • 19D. RankovicM
  • 47S. StojkovićM
  • 9Ethan HoardF
Substitutes
  • 31Vuk DraškićG
  • 11T. De BarrF
  • 23M. RodićD
  • 20J. ŠljivićM
  • 24U. StojanovićD
  • 18H. TouréD
  • 45A. VukičevićD
  • 7T. WouterF
  • 17M. BešićM
Coach: Radoslav Batak

Form going into Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd

Mladost Lucani

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Macva20 September 2026
  • L0-5away to Radnicki 192312 September 2026
  • W1-0Radnicki NIS5 September 2026
  • L0-2away to IMT Novi Beograd30 August 2026
  • W3-1FK Partizan23 August 2026

OFK Beograd

All competitions we cover

  • L3-5Radnicki 192319 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Radnicki NIS13 September 2026
  • D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026
  • L1-3away to FK Partizan31 August 2026
  • W1-0Zemun22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Mladost Lucani conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Mladost Lucani154651221-918
12OFK Beograd152581527-1211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd

  • 1 February 2026Mladost Lucani 0–0 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 23 August 2025OFK Beograd 1–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
  • 11 May 2025OFK Beograd 1–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
  • 24 November 2024OFK Beograd 0–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
  • 20 July 2024Mladost Lucani 1–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd

Mladost Lucani

GoalsAssists

  • Vasil Tasovski40

OFK Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Silue70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Mladost Lucani at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.41–0.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mladost Lucani a 10.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.7% after a win, 11.0% after a draw, 14.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.0%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For OFK Beograd the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 30.7% going in: 20.9% after a win, 30.8% after a draw, 38.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 30.8%.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mladost Lucani v OFK Beograd has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Mladost Lucani win38%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. OFK Beograd win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.