Regular Season - 9 · 13 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Radnicki NIS vs OFK Beograd Super Liga prediction & result

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Final score: Radnicki NIS 3-1 OFK Beograd.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Radnicki NIS, 29% draw, 27% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Radnicki NIS 1.65, OFK Beograd 1.07.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Radnicki NIS vs OFK Beograd

54%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-0 10%2-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Radnicki NIS at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Radnicki NIS99%Draw1%OFK Beograd0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ibrahim·Mustaphaassist: Damjan Krajisnik
7'
32'
Uroš Stojanović
Luka Izderic
41'
45'
🔁mamadou fallout: Leon Ivanović
45'
🔁Ethan Hoardout: Dognimani Yacouba Silue
50'
Tjay De Barr
52'
Sergio Peña (pen)
Luka Izderic
61'
Stefan Veličković
66'
67'
🔁Tayrell·Wouterout: J. Šljivić
🔁Luka Izdericout: Luka Borovic
67'
Radomir Milosavljević
73'
Luka Borovic
73'
🔁Vukasin jovanovicout: stefan nikolic
75'
🔁Milos Spasicout: A. Shestyuk
75'
🔁Ibrahim·Mustaphaout: Igor Ivanović
75'
77'
🔁hameed aderojuout: Đ. Ranković
A. Shestyukassist: stefan nikolic
80'
82'
🔁Tjay De Barrout: A. Vasilić

Match stats — Radnicki NIS vs OFK Beograd

46%Possession54%
13Shots8
7On target2
3Corners2

Line-ups

Radnicki NIS 4-2-3-1
  • 12I. KostićG
  • 18S. VeličkovićD
  • 4U. VitasD
  • 3R. JokićD
  • 25B. KovačevićD
  • 22R. MilosavljevićM
  • 15D. KrajišnikM
  • 97M. SpasićM
  • 89Luka IzdericM
  • 23I. MustaphaM
  • 42V. JovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 5N. ZečevićD
  • 20A. VidovićD
  • 94D. StanivukovićG
  • 9A. ShestyukF
  • 71D. PetrovićD
  • 70Stefan NikolicM
  • 2M. MijailovićD
  • 6F. KanoutéM
  • 11I. IvanovićF
Coach: M. Nedic
OFK Beograd 3-4-2-1
  • 31Vuk DraškićG
  • 4A. PavlovicD
  • 17M. BešićD
  • 26M. FallD
  • 27H. AderojuM
  • 6S. PeñaM
  • 3E. AddoM
  • 24U. StojanovićM
  • 11T. De BarrM
  • 7T. WouterM
  • 9Ethan HoardF
Substitutes
  • 77M. GobeljićD
  • 14M. MomčilovićM
  • 23M. RodićD
  • 20J. ŠljivićM
  • 97N. StojišićG
  • 18H. TouréD
  • 16L. IvanovicD
  • 19D. RankovicM
  • 42Y. SilueF
Coach: J. Damjanović

Form going into Radnicki NIS vs OFK Beograd

Radnicki NIS

  • L0-1away to Mladost Lucani5 September 2026
  • D1-1Radnicki 192329 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Macva22 August 2026
  • D0-0away to IMT Novi Beograd16 August 2026

OFK Beograd

  • D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026
  • L1-3away to FK Partizan31 August 2026
  • W1-0Zemun22 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Cukaricki15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Radnicki NIS822468-28
10OFK Beograd92341016-69

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Radnicki NIS vs OFK Beograd

  • 13 September 2026Radnicki NIS 3–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 3 April 2026Radnicki NIS 1–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 3 November 2025OFK Beograd 0–1 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
  • 2 March 2025OFK Beograd 2–0 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
  • 4 October 2024Radnicki NIS 1–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Radnicki NIS and OFK Beograd

Radnicki NIS

No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

OFK Beograd

  • Y. Silue4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.65 goals for Radnicki NIS and 1.07 for OFK Beograd; the game produced 3 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Ibrahim·Mustapha 7' (Radnicki NIS), Sergio Peña 52' (OFK Beograd), Luka Izderic 61' (Radnicki NIS), A. Shestyuk 80' (Radnicki NIS).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Radnicki NIS the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Radnicki NIS against 1.07 for OFK Beograd. Radnicki NIS's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.84 for OFK Beograd.