Radnicki NIS
vs
OFK Beograd
Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Radnicki NIS 3-1 OFK Beograd.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Radnicki NIS, 29% draw, 27% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Radnicki NIS 1.65, OFK Beograd 1.07.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Radnicki NIS vs OFK Beograd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radnicki NIS at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Radnicki NIS vs OFK Beograd
Line-ups
- 12I. KostićG
- 18S. VeličkovićD
- 4U. VitasD
- 3R. JokićD
- 25B. KovačevićD
- 22R. MilosavljevićM
- 15D. KrajišnikM
- 97M. SpasićM
- 89Luka IzdericM
- 23I. MustaphaM
- 42V. JovanovićF
- 5N. ZečevićD
- 20A. VidovićD
- 94D. StanivukovićG
- 9A. ShestyukF
- 71D. PetrovićD
- 70Stefan NikolicM
- 2M. MijailovićD
- 6F. KanoutéM
- 11I. IvanovićF
- 31Vuk DraškićG
- 4A. PavlovicD
- 17M. BešićD
- 26M. FallD
- 27H. AderojuM
- 6S. PeñaM
- 3E. AddoM
- 24U. StojanovićM
- 11T. De BarrM
- 7T. WouterM
- 9Ethan HoardF
- 77M. GobeljićD
- 14M. MomčilovićM
- 23M. RodićD
- 20J. ŠljivićM
- 97N. StojišićG
- 18H. TouréD
- 16L. IvanovicD
- 19D. RankovicM
- 42Y. SilueF
Form going into Radnicki NIS vs OFK Beograd
Radnicki NIS
- L0-1away to Mladost Lucani5 September 2026
- D1-1Radnicki 192329 August 2026
- L0-1away to Macva22 August 2026
- D0-0away to IMT Novi Beograd16 August 2026
OFK Beograd
- D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026
- L1-3away to FK Partizan31 August 2026
- W1-0Zemun22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Cukaricki15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Radnicki NIS | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Radnicki NIS vs OFK Beograd
- 13 September 2026Radnicki NIS 3–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 3 April 2026Radnicki NIS 1–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 3 November 2025OFK Beograd 0–1 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
- 2 March 2025OFK Beograd 2–0 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
- 4 October 2024Radnicki NIS 1–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Radnicki NIS and OFK Beograd
Radnicki NIS
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
OFK Beograd
- Y. Silue4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.65 goals for Radnicki NIS and 1.07 for OFK Beograd; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ibrahim·Mustapha 7' (Radnicki NIS), Sergio Peña 52' (OFK Beograd), Luka Izderic 61' (Radnicki NIS), A. Shestyuk 80' (Radnicki NIS).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnicki NIS the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Radnicki NIS against 1.07 for OFK Beograd. Radnicki NIS's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.84 for OFK Beograd.