24 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Pogon Szczecin, 34% draw, 24% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.38, 2.94 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pogon Szczecin at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Léo Borges
24'
🔁J. Nsameout: K. Grosicki
62'
🔁N. Lawaout: M. Agger
62'
🔁M. Juwaraout: F. Ulvestad
62'
67'
Wojciech Urbański
81'
🔁L. Zjawinskiout: J. Zewlakow
81'
🔁B. Kapustkaout: V. Bichakhchyan
83'
🔁D. Szymanskiout: H. Arreiol
88'
🔁R. Vinagreout: A. Reca
88'
🔁R. Dezielout: Z. Arsenic
🔁K. Acostaout: J. Bieganski
90'
🔁P. Mukairuout: F. Cuic
90'
90'
⚽Z. Arsenicassist: P. Wszolek

Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa

41%Possession59%
10Shots24
4On target6
3Corners5
1.08xG3.11

Goals against chances

Pogon Szczecin0 from 1.08 xGless than the chances were worth
Legia Warszawa1 from 3.11 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin 4-2-3-1
  • 77V. CojocaruG
  • 28L. WahlqvistD
  • 13D. KeramitsisD
  • 41A. SzalaiD
  • 4Leo BorgesD
  • 16P. DziczekM
  • 3K. AcostaM
  • 7M. JuwaraM
  • 47N. LawaM
  • 18P. MukairuM
  • 17J. NsameF
Substitutes
  • 33A. PeskovicG
  • 11K. GrosickiM
  • 6J. BieganskiM
  • 15H. AliD
  • 25M. AggerF
  • 8F. UlvestadM
  • 23B. MendyD
  • 19M. NdiayeM
  • 10F. CuicF
Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent
Legia Warszawa 4-2-2-2
  • 89O. HindrichG
  • 91K. PiatkowskiD
  • 8R. AugustyniakD
  • 4D. SzymanskiD
  • 5R. DezielD
  • 53W. UrbanskiM
  • 67B. KapustkaM
  • 22P. WszolekM
  • 19R. VinagreM
  • 29M. RajovicF
  • 79L. ZjawinskiF
Substitutes
  • 1I. BrkicG
  • 13A. RecaD
  • 23M. SevcikM
  • 6H. ArreiolM
  • 99S. KovacikF
  • 20J. ZewlakowF
  • 77F. PrzybylkoM
  • 24Z. ArsenicD
  • 11K. ChodynaM
Coach: Marek Papszun

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Pogon Szczecin11731199+1024
4Legia Warszawa126512311+1223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa

  • 6 April 2026Pogon Szczecin 0–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 30 October 2025Legia Warszawa 1–2 Pogon SzczecinCup
  • 28 September 2025Legia Warszawa 1–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 2 May 2025Pogon Szczecin 3–4 Legia WarszawaCup
  • 28 March 2025Legia Warszawa 0–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa

Pogon Szczecin

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Sánchez91

Legia Warszawa

GoalsAssists

  • R. Adamski40
  • Ł. Zjawiński40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Legia Warszawa won 1–0 at Pogon Szczecin. The model had leaned towards a win for Pogon Szczecin at 42% and given a win for Legia Warszawa 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Z. Arsenic 90' for Legia Warszawa. On expected goals it finished 1.08–3.11.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.