Warta Poznań
vs
Unia Skierniewice
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Warta Poznań 2–0 Unia Skierniewice
The model makes it 54% Warta Poznań, 25% draw, 21% Unia Skierniewice — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Warta Poznań 2.27, Unia Skierniewice 0.99.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Warta Poznań are 3rd on 15 points from 9 games; Unia Skierniewice are 13th on 10 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Warta Poznań have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Puszcza Niepołomice.
- Unia Skierniewice have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Podbeskidzie.
- Last 2 meetings: Unia Skierniewice 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 November 2025, ended Warta Poznań 0–2 Unia Skierniewice.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Warta Poznań at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice
Warta Poznań
- W3-2Puszcza Niepołomice18 September 2026
- W3-0Arka Gdynia12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Miedz Legnica30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Chrobry Głogów21 August 2026
Unia Skierniewice
- D1-1away to Podbeskidzie20 September 2026
- W3-2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ruch Chorzów7 September 2026
- L0-1Stal Rzeszów28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice23 August 2026
What these results say
- Warta Poznań scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warta Poznań | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 |
| 13 | Unia Skierniewice | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice
- 22 November 2025Warta Poznań 0–2 Unia SkierniewiceII Liga - East
- 27 July 2025Unia Skierniewice 2–1 Warta PoznańII Liga - East
The two sides
Warta Poznań carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.13 for Unia Skierniewice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Warta Poznań and 0.99 for Unia Skierniewice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Warta Poznań rate 0.70 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Unia Skierniewice rate 0.47 and 1.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Warta Poznań a 17% chance of the title and Unia Skierniewice 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Warta Poznań the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Warta Poznań against 0.99 for Unia Skierniewice. Warta Poznań's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.99 for Unia Skierniewice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Warta Poznań at home · Unia Skierniewice away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Warta Poznań 9, Unia Skierniewice 9.
Warta Poznań score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Unia Skierniewice have let in 2 there.
Unia Skierniewice score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Warta Poznań have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Warta Poznań
- vs ŁKS Łódź26 Oct · I Ligawin 43%
- at Podbeskidzie31 Oct · I Ligawin 37%
- vs Polonia Warszawa7 Nov · I Ligawin 47%
- at Ruch Chorzów21 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
Unia Skierniewice
- vs Polonia Bytom24 Oct · I Ligawin 38%
- at Lechia Gdansk31 Oct · I Ligawin 17%
- at Odra Opole7 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce21 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.