Pisa
vs
Cremonese
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Pisa 1–0 Cremonese
The model makes it 37% Pisa, 30% draw, 33% Cremonese — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pisa 1.30, Cremonese 1.15.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Pisa are 11th on 7 points from 5 games; Cremonese are 15th on 5 points from 5 games — Serie B.
- Pisa have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Mantova.
- Cremonese are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Virtus Entella.
- Last 6 meetings: Pisa 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Cremonese 3–0 Pisa.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Pisa vs Cremonese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pisa at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pisa vs Cremonese
Pisa
- D2-2away to Mantova20 September 2026
- L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
- W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
- W2-1Catanzaro30 August 2026
- L0-1Padova23 August 2026
Cremonese
- D0-0Virtus Entella19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cesena12 September 2026
- W3-1Padova6 September 2026
- L0-3Modena28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Empoli22 August 2026
What these results say
- Pisa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pisa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.
- Cremonese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cremonese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pisa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pisa vs Cremonese
- 10 May 2026Cremonese 3–0 PisaSerie A
- 7 November 2025Pisa 1–0 CremoneseSerie A
- 13 May 2025Pisa 2–1 CremoneseSerie B
- 3 November 2024Cremonese 1–3 PisaSerie B
- 1 May 2024Cremonese 2–1 PisaSerie B
- 2 December 2023Pisa 0–0 CremoneseSerie B
Leading scorers: Pisa and Cremonese
Pisa
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Cremonese
- F. Bonazzoli3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pisa carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.68 for Cremonese. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Pisa and 1.15 for Cremonese. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pisa rate 0.77 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cremonese rate 0.81 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pisa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Pisa against 1.15 for Cremonese. Pisa's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.13 for Cremonese.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pisa at home · Cremonese away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Pisa 5, Cremonese 5.
Cremonese score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Pisa have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pisa
- at Hellas Verona24 Oct · Serie Bwin 29%
- vs Palermo27 Oct · Serie Bwin 36%
- at Avellino31 Oct · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Sudtirol7 Nov · Serie Bwin 41%
Cremonese
- vs Juve Stabia24 Oct · Serie Bwin 46%
- at Mantova27 Oct · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Benevento31 Oct · Serie Bwin 43%
- at Vicenza Virtus7 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.