Benevento
vs
Vicenza Virtus
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Benevento 1–0 Vicenza Virtus
The model makes it 46% Benevento, 28% draw, 26% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Benevento 1.79, Vicenza Virtus 1.03.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Benevento are 7th on 7 points from 5 games; Vicenza Virtus are 16th on 5 points from 5 games — Serie B.
- Benevento have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Carrarese.
- Vicenza Virtus are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Hellas Verona.
- Last 5 meetings: Benevento 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Vicenza Virtus 1–4 Benevento.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benevento at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus
Benevento
- W1-0away to Carrarese19 September 2026
- W3-1Hellas Verona11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
- D1-1Sudtirol30 August 2026
- L1-2Modena22 August 2026
Vicenza Virtus
- L1-2away to Hellas Verona20 September 2026
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
- W3-2Catanzaro21 August 2026
What these results say
- Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Benevento | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus
- 16 May 2026Vicenza Virtus 1–4 BeneventoSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
- 10 April 2022Benevento 1–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 30 November 2021Vicenza Virtus 2–3 BeneventoSerie B
- 21 April 2017Benevento 0–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 26 November 2016Vicenza Virtus 0–0 BeneventoSerie B
Leading scorers: Benevento and Vicenza Virtus
Benevento
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Vicenza Virtus
- S. Merkaj2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Benevento carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.45 for Vicenza Virtus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Benevento and 1.03 for Vicenza Virtus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benevento rate 0.72 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vicenza Virtus rate 0.74 and 1.66.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benevento the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Benevento against 1.03 for Vicenza Virtus. Benevento's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.66 for Vicenza Virtus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Benevento at home · Vicenza Virtus away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Benevento 5, Vicenza Virtus 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Benevento
- at Arezzo24 Oct · Serie Bwin 41%
- vs Catanzaro27 Oct · Serie Bwin 41%
- at Cremonese31 Oct · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Avellino7 Nov · Serie Bwin 43%
Vicenza Virtus
- at Empoli24 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Modena27 Oct · Serie Bwin 33%
- at Palermo31 Oct · Serie Bwin 22%
- vs Cremonese7 Nov · Serie Bwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.