Padova
vs
Virtus Entella
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Padova 1–0 Virtus Entella
The model makes it 39% Padova, 31% draw, 30% Virtus Entella — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Padova 1.25, Virtus Entella 0.97.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Padova are 6th on 7 points from 5 games; Virtus Entella are 14th on 5 points from 5 games — Serie B.
- Padova have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Palermo.
- Virtus Entella are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Cremonese.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Virtus Entella 1–0 Padova.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Padova vs Virtus Entella
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Padova at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Padova vs Virtus Entella
Padova
- L1-2away to Palermo19 September 2026
- W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pisa23 August 2026
Virtus Entella
- D0-0away to Cremonese19 September 2026
- W4-1away to Pisa11 September 2026
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus6 September 2026
- L1-2Cesena29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sudtirol22 August 2026
What these results say
- Padova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Virtus Entella failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Virtus Entella conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Padova | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Padova vs Virtus Entella
- 25 April 2026Virtus Entella 1–0 PadovaSerie B
- 21 September 2025Padova 2–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 17 May 2025Padova 0–1 Virtus EntellaSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
- 3 November 2021Padova 2–1 Virtus EntellaCoppa Italia Serie C
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Padova carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.49 for Virtus Entella. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Padova and 0.97 for Virtus Entella. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Padova rate 0.63 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Virtus Entella rate 0.64 and 1.32.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Padova the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Padova against 0.97 for Virtus Entella. Padova's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.32 for Virtus Entella.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Padova at home · Virtus Entella away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Padova 5, Virtus Entella 5.
Padova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Virtus Entella have let in 2 there.
Virtus Entella score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Padova have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Padova
- at Avellino24 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Sudtirol27 Oct · Serie Bwin 36%
- at Catanzaro31 Oct · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Empoli7 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Virtus Entella
- vs Mantova24 Oct · Serie Bwin 37%
- vs Avellino27 Oct · Serie Bwin 39%
- at Sampdoria31 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Modena7 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.