Carrarese
vs
Modena
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Carrarese 0–1 Modena
The model makes it 31% Carrarese, 32% draw, 37% Modena — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Carrarese 0.96, Modena 1.13.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Carrarese are bottom on 1 point from 5 games; Modena are 4th on 10 points from 5 games — Serie B.
- Carrarese have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Benevento.
- Modena have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Empoli.
- Last 6 meetings: Modena 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Modena 2–0 Carrarese.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Carrarese vs Modena
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Modena at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Carrarese vs Modena
Carrarese
- L0-1Benevento19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Catanzaro12 September 2026
- L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
- L1-2Mantova22 August 2026
Modena
- W2-1Empoli20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026
What these results say
- Carrarese did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Carrarese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Carrarese had two goals or fewer.
- Modena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Modena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Carrarese | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 4 | Modena | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Modena
- 14 February 2026Modena 2–0 CarrareseSerie B
- 1 October 2025Carrarese 0–0 ModenaSerie B
- 4 May 2025Carrarese 2–1 ModenaSerie B
- 9 November 2024Modena 2–0 CarrareseSerie B
- 12 March 2022Carrarese 2–3 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
- 31 October 2021Modena 2–0 CarrareseSerie C - Girone B
Leading scorers: Carrarese and Modena
Carrarese
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Modena
- G. Ambrosino2 goals2 assists
- G. Caso2 goals
- G. Olzer2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Carrarese carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.64 for Modena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Carrarese and 1.13 for Modena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Carrarese rate 0.57 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Modena rate 0.73 and 1.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Modena the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Carrarese against 1.13 for Modena. Carrarese's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.12 for Modena.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Carrarese at home · Modena away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Carrarese 5, Modena 5.
Modena score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Carrarese have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Carrarese
- at Palermo24 Oct · Serie Bwin 21%
- vs Arezzo27 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Hellas Verona31 Oct · Serie Bwin 23%
- vs Sampdoria7 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
Modena
- vs Cesena24 Oct · Serie Bwin 47%
- at Vicenza Virtus27 Oct · Serie Bwin 37%
- vs Mantova31 Oct · Serie Bwin 43%
- at Virtus Entella7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.