GKS Katowice
vs
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 40% GKS Katowice, 26% draw, 34% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: GKS Katowice 1.47, Wisla Plock 1.36.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
GKS Katowice
- W3-1Radomiak Radom2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow26 July 2026
Wisla Plock
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow7 August 2026
- D0-0Widzew Łódź31 July 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
GKS Katowice carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.67 for Wisla Plock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): GKS Katowice L-W; Wisla Plock W-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for GKS Katowice and 1.36 for Wisla Plock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GKS Katowice rate 0.65 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Plock rate 0.83 and 1.20.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wisla Plock, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for GKS Katowice against 1.36 for Wisla Plock. GKS Katowice's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.2 for Wisla Plock.