1 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result

TQL Stadium, Cincinnati
Full time4 – 2

Final score: FC Cincinnati 4-2 San Jose Earthquakes.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% FC Cincinnati, 16% draw, 21% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 1.59, 6.25 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Cincinnati at 63% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Cincinnati95%Draw5%San Jose Earthquakes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

K. Smith
20'
26'
⚽D. Munieassist: T. Werner
⚽B. J. Ramirez Leonassist: Evander
34'
46'
🔁N. Fernandezout: I. Harkes
57'
⚽T. Wernerassist: P. Judd
60'
🔁Vitor Costaout: J. Ricketts
🔁K. Mbomaout: T. Barlow
70'
🔁K. Smithout: T. Hadebe
70'
73'
🔁O. Boudaout: J. Skahan
⚽T. Barlowassist: Evander
80'
81'
🔁B. Kikanovicout: J. Jasinski
81'
🔁R. Vieiraout: D. Romney
⚽Evanderassist: O. Nwobodo
82'
P. Bucha
87'
🔁E. Echeniqueout: A. Powell
88'
🔁O. Nwobodoout: T. Anunga
88'
M. Robinson
89'
🔁K. Denkeyout: A. Jabbari
90+3'
⚽A. Jabbariassist: T. Barlow
90+6'

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati
  • 18Roman CelentanoG
  • 24Kyle SmithD
  • 12Miles RobinsonD
  • 11Samuel GidiD
  • 66Ender EcheniqueM
  • 20Pavel BuchaM
  • 5Obinna NwobodoM
  • 29Bryan RamirezM
  • 10EvanderF
  • 17Kenji Mboma DemF
  • 9Kévin DenkeyF
Substitutes
  • 13Evan LouroG
  • 4Nick HagglundD
  • 88Andrei ChirilaD
  • 15Teenage HadebeD
  • 2Alvas PowellD
  • 27Tah AnungaM
  • 99Ayoub JabbariF
  • 16Tom BarlowF
  • 14Kristian FletcherF
Coach: Pat Noonan
San Jose Earthquakes
  • 1Angus GunnG
  • 87Vitor CostaD
  • 18Reid RobertsD
  • 5Daniel MunieD
  • 28Benjamin KikanovićD
  • 34Beau LerouxM
  • 14Ronaldo VieiraM
  • 20Nick FernandezM
  • 11Timo WernerF
  • 19Preston JuddF
  • 7Ousseni BoudaF
Substitutes
  • 31Francesco MontaliG
  • 17Jack JasinskiD
  • 4Dave RomneyD
  • 2Jamar RickettsD
  • 79Darius JohnsonF
  • 6Ian HarkesM
  • 16Jack SkahanM
  • 3Paul MarieD
  • 9Luka JovanovicF
Coach: Bruce Arena

Form going into FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes

FC Cincinnati

  • L1-2away to Columbus Crew25 July 2026
  • W4-3Vancouver Whitecaps22 July 2026

San Jose Earthquakes

  • D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
  • L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes

  • 1 August 2026FC Cincinnati 4–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 16 June 2024San Jose Earthquakes 2–4 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 10 September 2022FC Cincinnati 6–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 5 May 2019San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes

FC Cincinnati

  • K. Denkey13 goals2 assists
  • Evander12 goals8 assists

San Jose Earthquakes

  • P. Judd12 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.