FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: FC Cincinnati 4-2 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% FC Cincinnati, 16% draw, 21% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 1.59, 6.25 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Cincinnati at 63% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 18Roman CelentanoG
- 24Kyle SmithD
- 12Miles RobinsonD
- 11Samuel GidiD
- 66Ender EcheniqueM
- 20Pavel BuchaM
- 5Obinna NwobodoM
- 29Bryan RamirezM
- 10EvanderF
- 17Kenji Mboma DemF
- 9Kévin DenkeyF
- 13Evan LouroG
- 4Nick HagglundD
- 88Andrei ChirilaD
- 15Teenage HadebeD
- 2Alvas PowellD
- 27Tah AnungaM
- 99Ayoub JabbariF
- 16Tom BarlowF
- 14Kristian FletcherF
- 1Angus GunnG
- 87Vitor CostaD
- 18Reid RobertsD
- 5Daniel MunieD
- 28Benjamin KikanovićD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 14Ronaldo VieiraM
- 20Nick FernandezM
- 11Timo WernerF
- 19Preston JuddF
- 7Ousseni BoudaF
- 31Francesco MontaliG
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 4Dave RomneyD
- 2Jamar RickettsD
- 79Darius JohnsonF
- 6Ian HarkesM
- 16Jack SkahanM
- 3Paul MarieD
- 9Luka JovanovicF
Form going into FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes
FC Cincinnati
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew25 July 2026
- W4-3Vancouver Whitecaps22 July 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 66 | 73 | -7 | 43 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 54 | 47 | +7 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 16 June 2024San Jose Earthquakes 2–4 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 10 September 2022FC Cincinnati 6–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2019San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey173
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd162
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Cincinnati beat San Jose Earthquakes 4–2. The model had made a win for FC Cincinnati its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: D. Munie 26' for San Jose Earthquakes, B. J. Ramirez Leon 34' for FC Cincinnati, T. Werner 57' for San Jose Earthquakes, T. Barlow 80' for FC Cincinnati, Evander 82' for FC Cincinnati, A. Jabbari 90+6' for FC Cincinnati.