FC Cincinnati
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
The model makes it 63% FC Cincinnati, 16% draw, 21% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 1.59, 6.25 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 3.05, San Jose Earthquakes 1.80.
Both teams to score: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 16 June 2024San Jose Earthquakes 2–4 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 10 September 2022FC Cincinnati 6–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2019San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Cincinnati the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.05 expected goals for FC Cincinnati against 1.8 for San Jose Earthquakes. FC Cincinnati's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.9 for San Jose Earthquakes.