DC United vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: DC United 2-2 Nashville SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% DC United, 25% draw, 27% Nashville SC — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts DC United at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — DC United vs Nashville SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Sean JohnsonG
- 5Silvan HeftiD
- 3Lucas BartlettD
- 15Kye RowlesD
- 6Keisuke KurokawaD
- 25Jackson HopkinsM
- 21Andre DozzellM
- 23Brandon ServaniaM
- 7João PeglowM
- 9Tai BariboF
- 11Louis MunteanuF
- 4Matti PeltolaD
- 22Nathan OrdazF
- 8Jared StroudM
- 26Alex BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 13Sean NealisD
- 77Hosei KijimaM
- 32Oscar AvilezF
- 40Kamil CastilloM
- 99Brian SchwakeG
- 31Andy NajarD
- 4Jeisson PalaciosD
- 3Maxwell WoledziD
- 2Daniel LovitzD
- 20Edvard TagsethM
- 16Matthew CorcoranM
- 14Shakur MohammedM
- 10Hany MukhtarM
- 37Ahmed QasemM
- 9Sam SurridgeF
- 41Warren MadrigalF
- 11Elias SaadF
- 6Bryan AcostaM
- 22Josh BauerD
- 27Reed Baker-WhitingD
- 13Xavier ValdezG
- 5Jack MaherD
- 23Jordan KnightD
- 12Charles-Emile BrunetM
Form going into DC United vs Nashville SC
DC United
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Toronto FC25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Houston Dynamo23 July 2026
Nashville SC
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC25 July 2026
- W1-0CF Montreal23 July 2026
- W1-0Atlanta United FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | DC United | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 33 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 66 | 23 | +43 | 71 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: DC United vs Nashville SC
- 10 May 2026Nashville SC 2–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 10 July 2025Nashville SC 5–2 DC UnitedUS Open Cup
- 28 June 2025DC United 0–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2025Nashville SC 0–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 12 February 2025Nashville SC 4–1 DC UnitedFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: DC United and Nashville SC
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge181
- H. Mukhtar167
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
DC United and Nashville SC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for DC United at 48% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Surridge (penalty) 32' for Nashville SC, S. Mohammed 40' for Nashville SC, S. Hefti 56' for DC United, T. Baribo 77' for DC United. On expected goals it finished 2.03–1.52.