1 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

DC United vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Audi Field, Washington
Full time2 – 2

Final score: DC United 2-2 Nashville SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% DC United, 25% draw, 27% Nashville SC — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts DC United at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

DC United5%Draw92%Nashville SC3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽S. Surridge (pen)
40'
⚽S. Mohammed
45+3'
H. Mukhtar
T. Baribo
45+3'
⚽S. Hefti
56'
62'
🔁S. Mohammedout: W. Madrigal
62'
🔁A. Qasemout: E. Saad
🔁J. Hopkinsout: N. Ordaz
64'
🔁B. Servaniaout: M. Peltola
64'
L. Bartlett
72'
73'
🔁H. Mukhtarout: B. Acosta
⚽T. Bariboassist: L. Munteanu
77'
84'
🔁E. Tagsethout: J. Bauer
84'
🔁A. Najarout: R. Baker-Whiting
84'
E. Saad
🔁L. Munteanuout: J. Stroud
90+1'
90+10'
M. Corcoran

Match stats — DC United vs Nashville SC

39%Possession61%
17Shots10
7On target2
8Corners3
2.03xG1.52

Goals against chances

DC United2 from 2.03 xGabout what the chances were worth
Nashville SC2 from 1.52 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

DC United 4-4-2
  • 1Sean JohnsonG
  • 5Silvan HeftiD
  • 3Lucas BartlettD
  • 15Kye RowlesD
  • 6Keisuke KurokawaD
  • 25Jackson HopkinsM
  • 21Andre DozzellM
  • 23Brandon ServaniaM
  • 7João PeglowM
  • 9Tai BariboF
  • 11Louis MunteanuF
Substitutes
  • 4Matti PeltolaD
  • 22Nathan OrdazF
  • 8Jared StroudM
  • 26Alex BonoG
  • 27Nikola MarkovicD
  • 13Sean NealisD
  • 77Hosei KijimaM
  • 32Oscar AvilezF
  • 40Kamil CastilloM
Coach: Rene Weiler
Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
  • 99Brian SchwakeG
  • 31Andy NajarD
  • 4Jeisson PalaciosD
  • 3Maxwell WoledziD
  • 2Daniel LovitzD
  • 20Edvard TagsethM
  • 16Matthew CorcoranM
  • 14Shakur MohammedM
  • 10Hany MukhtarM
  • 37Ahmed QasemM
  • 9Sam SurridgeF
Substitutes
  • 41Warren MadrigalF
  • 11Elias SaadF
  • 6Bryan AcostaM
  • 22Josh BauerD
  • 27Reed Baker-WhitingD
  • 13Xavier ValdezG
  • 5Jack MaherD
  • 23Jordan KnightD
  • 12Charles-Emile BrunetM
Coach: Brian Callaghan

Form going into DC United vs Nashville SC

DC United

  • W2-1Toronto FC25 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Houston Dynamo23 July 2026

Nashville SC

  • L0-1away to Orlando City SC25 July 2026
  • W1-0CF Montreal23 July 2026
  • W1-0Atlanta United FC18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: DC United vs Nashville SC

  • 1 August 2026DC United 2–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 10 May 2026Nashville SC 2–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 10 July 2025Nashville SC 5–2 DC UnitedUS Open Cup
  • 28 June 2025DC United 0–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 18 May 2025Nashville SC 0–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 12 February 2025Nashville SC 4–1 DC UnitedFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: DC United and Nashville SC

DC United

  • T. Baribo14 goals

Nashville SC

  • S. Surridge15 goals
  • H. Mukhtar10 goals6 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.