Abu Qair Semad
vs
Ghazl El Mehalla
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Abu Qair Semad 0–1 Ghazl El Mehalla
The model makes it 31% Abu Qair Semad, 34% draw, 35% Ghazl El Mehalla — fair odds of 3.23, 2.94 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Abu Qair Semad 0.88, Ghazl El Mehalla 0.95.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Abu Qair Semad are 18th on 3 points from 6 games; Ghazl El Mehalla are bottom on 1 point from 6 games — Premier League.
- Abu Qair Semad have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Asyut Petrol.
- Ghazl El Mehalla have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Smouha SC.
- Last 2 meetings: Ghazl El Mehalla 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 October 2026, ended Ghazl El Mehalla 1–1 Abu Qair Semad.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ghazl El Mehalla at 35% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla
Abu Qair Semad
- L1-2Asyut Petrol13 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Ahly15 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zamalek SC8 September 2026
- L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria2 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pyramids FC27 August 2026
Ghazl El Mehalla
- L0-1away to Smouha SC12 October 2026
- L0-1Zamalek SC16 September 2026
- L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026
- D0-0Enppi1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Future FC27 August 2026
What these results say
- Abu Qair Semad did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abu Qair Semad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Abu Qair Semad failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Abu Qair Semad
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 60% today
Ghazl El Mehalla
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 69% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla
- 8 October 2026Ghazl El Mehalla 1–1 Abu Qair SemadLeague Cup
- 8 October 2023Ghazl El Mehalla 2–0 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Abu Qair Semad carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.17 for Ghazl El Mehalla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.88 goals for Abu Qair Semad and 0.95 for Ghazl El Mehalla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Abu Qair Semad rate 0.44 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ghazl El Mehalla rate 0.45 and 1.77.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Abu Qair Semad, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ghazl El Mehalla the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Abu Qair Semad against 0.95 for Ghazl El Mehalla. Abu Qair Semad's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.77 for Ghazl El Mehalla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Abu Qair Semad at home · Ghazl El Mehalla away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Abu Qair Semad 6, Ghazl El Mehalla 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Abu Qair Semad
- at Masr24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Smouha SC10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at El Gouna FC15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Wadi Degla22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Ghazl El Mehalla
- vs Petrojet25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Al Ahly10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- at Al Masry16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs El Mokawloon22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.