Wadi Degla
vs
National Bank of Egypt
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Wadi Degla 1–0 National Bank of Egypt
The model makes it 39% Wadi Degla, 30% draw, 31% National Bank of Egypt — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wadi Degla 1.36, National Bank of Egypt 1.09.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Wadi Degla are 14th on 5 points from 5 games; National Bank of Egypt are 13th on 6 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Wadi Degla are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to El Mokawloon.
- National Bank of Egypt have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Ceramica Cleopatra.
- Last 6 meetings: Wadi Degla 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Wadi Degla 2–0 National Bank of Egypt.
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wadi Degla vs National Bank of Egypt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wadi Degla at 39% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wadi Degla vs National Bank of Egypt
Wadi Degla
- L0-2El Mokawloon15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Future FC9 September 2026
- D0-0Olympic El Qanah1 September 2026
- W3-1away to Enppi28 August 2026
- D0-0Masr21 August 2026
National Bank of Egypt
- L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra14 September 2026
- W3-1Ghazl El Mehalla7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Asyut Petrol31 August 2026
- L0-3Zamalek SC26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Abu Qair Semad21 August 2026
What these results say
- Wadi Degla failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- National Bank of Egypt conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | National Bank of Egypt | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wadi Degla vs National Bank of Egypt
- 18 April 2026Wadi Degla 2–0 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
- 5 January 2026National Bank of Egypt 2–2 Wadi DeglaLeague Cup
- 24 September 2025National Bank of Egypt 1–1 Wadi DeglaPremier League
- 7 April 2021Wadi Degla 4–2 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
- 11 February 2021Wadi Degla 3–1 National Bank of EgyptCup
- 12 December 2020National Bank of Egypt 1–1 Wadi DeglaPremier League
Leading scorers: Wadi Degla and National Bank of Egypt
Wadi Degla
- S. Touka2 goals
National Bank of Egypt
- Osama Faisal2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wadi Degla carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.32 for National Bank of Egypt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Wadi Degla and 1.09 for National Bank of Egypt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wadi Degla rate 0.65 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; National Bank of Egypt rate 0.65 and 1.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour National Bank of Egypt, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wadi Degla the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Wadi Degla against 1.09 for National Bank of Egypt. Wadi Degla's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.88 for National Bank of Egypt.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wadi Degla at home · National Bank of Egypt away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Wadi Degla 5, National Bank of Egypt 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Wadi Degla
- at Pyramids FC29 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Al Ittihad Alexandria24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at El Geish8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Ceramica Cleopatra15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
National Bank of Egypt
- vs Al Masry28 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Smouha SC24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs El Gouna FC8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Pyramids FC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.