Burton Albion
vs
Huddersfield
League One prediction
Our model says: Burton Albion 1–2 Huddersfield
The model makes it 35% Burton Albion, 29% draw, 36% Huddersfield — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Burton Albion 1.37, Huddersfield 1.42.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Burton Albion and Huddersfield are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Burton Albion vs Huddersfield
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Huddersfield at 36% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Burton Albion vs Huddersfield
Burton Albion
- D2-2Mansfield Town19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oxford United12 September 2026
- D2-2Cambridge United5 September 2026
- W4-1AFC Wimbledon2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Notts County29 August 2026
Huddersfield
- L1-2away to Bromley19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Mansfield Town12 September 2026
- D1-1Notts County5 September 2026
- W3-1Oxford United1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cambridge United29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Burton Albion | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Burton Albion vs Huddersfield
- 17 January 2026Burton Albion 3–1 HuddersfieldLeague One
- 20 September 2025Huddersfield 0–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 12 April 2025Burton Albion 3–0 HuddersfieldLeague One
- 29 December 2024Huddersfield 1–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 1 April 2017Huddersfield 0–1 Burton AlbionChampionship
- 13 December 2016Burton Albion 0–1 HuddersfieldChampionship
Leading scorers: Burton Albion and Huddersfield
Burton Albion
No player in League One's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Huddersfield
- J. Taylor5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Burton Albion carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.37 for Huddersfield. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Burton Albion and 1.42 for Huddersfield. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burton Albion rate 0.55 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Huddersfield rate 0.62 and 1.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burton Albion a 1.5% chance of the title and Huddersfield 11.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Huddersfield the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Burton Albion against 1.42 for Huddersfield. Burton Albion's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.63 for Huddersfield.