Peterborough
vs
Burton Albion
League One prediction
Our model says: Peterborough 0–1 Burton Albion
The model makes it 34% Peterborough, 30% draw, 36% Burton Albion — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Peterborough 1.25, Burton Albion 1.36.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Peterborough and Burton Albion are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Peterborough are 23rd on 5 points from 8 games; Burton Albion are 7th on 12 points from 8 games — League One.
- Peterborough have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Stockport County.
- Burton Albion have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Plymouth.
- Last 6 meetings: Peterborough 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Peterborough 1–1 Burton Albion.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Peterborough vs Burton Albion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burton Albion at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Peterborough vs Burton Albion
Peterborough
- L0-1away to Stockport County26 September 2026
- L0-2Doncaster19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Milton Keynes Dons12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Wednesday5 September 2026
- D0-0Stevenage1 September 2026
Burton Albion
- W1-0away to Plymouth26 September 2026
- D2-2Mansfield Town19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oxford United12 September 2026
- D2-2Cambridge United5 September 2026
- W4-1AFC Wimbledon2 September 2026
What these results say
- Peterborough did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Peterborough had two goals or fewer.
- Burton Albion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burton Albion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Burton Albion had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Peterborough | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Peterborough vs Burton Albion
- 19 April 2026Peterborough 1–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 18 October 2025Burton Albion 0–1 PeterboroughLeague One
- 1 January 2025Burton Albion 2–2 PeterboroughLeague One
- 4 December 2024Peterborough 0–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 9 March 2024Burton Albion 1–3 PeterboroughLeague One
- 25 November 2023Peterborough 4–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
Leading scorers: Peterborough and Burton Albion
Peterborough
No player in League One's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Burton Albion
- J. Armer3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Peterborough carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.27 for Burton Albion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Peterborough and 1.36 for Burton Albion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Peterborough rate 0.47 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burton Albion rate 0.55 and 1.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Peterborough a 0% chance of the title and Burton Albion 2.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burton Albion the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Peterborough against 1.36 for Burton Albion. Peterborough's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.75 for Burton Albion.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Peterborough at home · Burton Albion away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Peterborough 8, Burton Albion 8.
Burton Albion score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Peterborough have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Peterborough
- at Huddersfield20 Oct · League Onewin 24%
- at Bromley24 Oct · League Onewin 37%
- vs Luton31 Oct · League Onewin 33%
Burton Albion
- vs Bradford20 Oct · League Onewin 35%
- vs Leyton Orient24 Oct · League Onewin 40%
- at Wycombe31 Oct · League Onewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.