Leicester
vs
Doncaster
League One prediction
Our model says: Leicester 1–0 Doncaster
The model makes it 49% Leicester, 28% draw, 23% Doncaster — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Leicester 1.84, Doncaster 0.90.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Leicester are 14th on 9 points from 7 games; Doncaster are 21st on 6 points from 7 games — League One.
- Leicester have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Barnsley.
- Doncaster have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Peterborough.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2014, ended Leicester 1–0 Doncaster.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Leicester vs Doncaster
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leicester at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leicester vs Doncaster
Leicester
- D1-1away to Barnsley19 September 2026
- W4-3away to Stockport County12 September 2026
- L0-4Oxford United5 September 2026
- W2-0Plymouth1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Milton Keynes Dons29 August 2026
Doncaster
- W2-0away to Peterborough19 September 2026
- L0-1away to AFC Wimbledon12 September 2026
- L2-3Plymouth5 September 2026
- D1-1Notts County1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stevenage29 August 2026
What these results say
- Doncaster failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Doncaster scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Doncaster conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leicester vs Doncaster
- 3 May 2014Leicester 1–0 DoncasterChampionship
- 5 October 2013Doncaster 1–0 LeicesterChampionship
- 7 April 2012Leicester 4–0 DoncasterChampionship
- 17 December 2011Doncaster 2–1 LeicesterChampionship
The two sides
Leicester carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.19 for Doncaster. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Leicester and 0.90 for Doncaster. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leicester rate 0.66 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Doncaster rate 0.49 and 1.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leicester a 12.6% chance of the title and Doncaster 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leicester the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Leicester against 0.90 for Doncaster. Leicester's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.83 for Doncaster.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leicester at home · Doncaster away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Leicester 7, Doncaster 7.
Leicester score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Doncaster have let in 1 there.
Doncaster score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Leicester have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Leicester
- at Bromley20 Oct · League Onewin 50%
- at Luton24 Oct · League Onewin 37%
- vs Wigan27 Oct · League Onewin 51%
- vs Stevenage31 Oct · League Onewin 44%
Doncaster
- vs Stockport County20 Oct · League Onewin 31%
- vs Sheffield Wednesday24 Oct · League Onewin 34%
- at Milton Keynes Dons31 Oct · League Onewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.