Sheffield Wednesday
vs
AFC Wimbledon
League One prediction
Our model says: Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 AFC Wimbledon
The model makes it 45% Sheffield Wednesday, 30% draw, 25% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Sheffield Wednesday 1.52, AFC Wimbledon 0.82.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sheffield Wednesday are 2nd on 14 points from 7 games; AFC Wimbledon are 8th on 12 points from 8 games — League One.
- Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Stockport County.
- AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cambridge United.
- Last 2 meetings: Sheffield Wednesday 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 April 2022, ended Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 AFC Wimbledon.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sheffield Wednesday at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon
Sheffield Wednesday
- D0-0Stockport County19 September 2026
- D0-0Wigan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Peterborough5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Wycombe1 September 2026
- W7-2Bromley29 August 2026
AFC Wimbledon
- D1-1away to Cambridge United26 September 2026
- D0-0Milton Keynes Dons17 September 2026
- W1-0Doncaster12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bromley7 September 2026
- L1-4away to Burton Albion2 September 2026
What these results say
- Sheffield Wednesday went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AFC Wimbledon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AFC Wimbledon had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
| 8 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon
- 2 April 2022Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 16 October 2021AFC Wimbledon 2–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
Leading scorers: Sheffield Wednesday and AFC Wimbledon
Sheffield Wednesday
- J. Lowe4 goals1 assist
- L. Barry3 goals1 assist
AFC Wimbledon
- J. Stockley3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sheffield Wednesday carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.12 for AFC Wimbledon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.82 for AFC Wimbledon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sheffield Wednesday rate 0.55 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AFC Wimbledon rate 0.41 and 1.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Wednesday a 4.4% chance of the title and AFC Wimbledon 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Wednesday the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday against 0.82 for AFC Wimbledon. Sheffield Wednesday's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.81 for AFC Wimbledon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sheffield Wednesday at home · AFC Wimbledon away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Sheffield Wednesday 7, AFC Wimbledon 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sheffield Wednesday
- at Notts County20 Oct · League Onewin 34%
- at Doncaster24 Oct · League Onewin 36%
- vs Cambridge United27 Oct · League Onewin 39%
- vs Blackpool1 Nov · League Onewin 42%
AFC Wimbledon
- vs Mansfield Town20 Oct · League Onewin 31%
- vs Wycombe24 Oct · League Onewin 33%
- at Stockport County31 Oct · League Onewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.