Leyton Orient
vs
Blackpool
League One prediction
Our model says: Leyton Orient 2–1 Blackpool
The model makes it 41% Leyton Orient, 28% draw, 31% Blackpool — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.65, Blackpool 1.27.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Leyton Orient are 11th on 10 points from 7 games; Blackpool are 15th on 8 points from 7 games — League One.
- Leyton Orient have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Stevenage.
- Blackpool are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Plymouth.
- Last 6 meetings: Leyton Orient 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Blackpool 1–0 Leyton Orient.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Leyton Orient vs Blackpool
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leyton Orient at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leyton Orient vs Blackpool
Leyton Orient
- W1-0Stevenage19 September 2026
- L2-3Wycombe12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Luton5 September 2026
- W5-0away to Bromley1 September 2026
- L1-3Barnsley29 August 2026
Blackpool
- L2-4Plymouth19 September 2026
- D2-2Bromley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Reading5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnsley2 September 2026
- W4-0Peterborough29 August 2026
What these results say
- Leyton Orient scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Blackpool scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Blackpool had three goals or more.
- Blackpool failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leyton Orient vs Blackpool
- 25 April 2026Blackpool 1–0 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 22 November 2025Leyton Orient 1–1 BlackpoolLeague One
- 15 March 2025Blackpool 1–2 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 9 November 2024Leyton Orient 3–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 27 February 2024Leyton Orient 1–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 19 August 2023Blackpool 0–0 Leyton OrientLeague One
Leading scorers: Leyton Orient and Blackpool
Leyton Orient
- J. Kabia4 goals2 assists
- Y. Akhamrich3 goals2 assists
Blackpool
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leyton Orient carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.24 for Blackpool. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.27 for Blackpool. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leyton Orient rate 0.57 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Blackpool rate 0.56 and 1.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leyton Orient a 1.5% chance of the title and Blackpool 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leyton Orient the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Leyton Orient against 1.27 for Blackpool. Leyton Orient's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.9 for Blackpool.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leyton Orient at home · Blackpool away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Leyton Orient 7, Blackpool 7.
Leyton Orient score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Blackpool have let in 4 there.
Blackpool score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Leyton Orient have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Leyton Orient
- at Reading21 Oct · League Onewin 28%
- at Burton Albion24 Oct · League Onewin 31%
Blackpool
- vs Milton Keynes Dons20 Oct · League Onewin 41%
- vs Mansfield Town24 Oct · League Onewin 37%
- at Sheffield Wednesday1 Nov · League Onewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.