Durban City
vs
Amazulu
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Durban City 0–0 Amazulu
The model makes it 32% Durban City, 34% draw, 34% Amazulu — fair odds of 3.13, 2.94 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (19%).
Expected goals: Durban City 0.82, Amazulu 0.89.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 25%, under 2.5: 75%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Durban City and Amazulu are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Durban City are 10th on 7 points from 7 games; Amazulu are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games — Premier Soccer League.
- Durban City are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Milford FC.
- Amazulu are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-0 win away to Polokwane City.
- Last 2 meetings: Amazulu 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Durban City 0–1 Amazulu.
All South African Premier Soccer League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Durban City vs Amazulu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 34% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Durban City vs Amazulu
Durban City
- D1-1away to Milford FC20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Orlando Pirates17 September 2026
- D0-0Stellenbosch1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kruger United25 August 2026
- D1-1Richards Bay15 August 2026
Amazulu
- W1-0away to Polokwane City19 September 2026
- W1-0Marumo Gallants12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Richards Bay4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Mamelodi Sundowns26 August 2026
- W2-0Siwelele15 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Durban City had two goals or fewer.
- Durban City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amazulu scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Amazulu won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Durban City | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Durban City vs Amazulu
- 23 May 2026Durban City 0–1 AmazuluPremier Soccer League
- 18 October 2025Amazulu 1–0 Durban CityPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Durban City and Amazulu
Durban City
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Amazulu
- T. Ngwenya8 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Durban City carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.45 for Amazulu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for Durban City and 0.89 for Amazulu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Durban City rate 0.46 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amazulu rate 0.67 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Durban City a 0% chance of the title and Amazulu 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amazulu the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Durban City against 0.89 for Amazulu. Durban City's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.49 for Amazulu.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Durban City at home · Amazulu away
League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Durban City 7, Amazulu 7.
Durban City score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Amazulu have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Durban City
- at Mamelodi Sundowns1 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 19%
- at TS Galaxy4 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 32%
- vs Polokwane City27 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 36%
- at Siwelele6 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 31%
- vs Marumo Gallants15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 43%
Amazulu
- vs Golden Arrows31 Oct · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 39%
- at Kaizer Chiefs4 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 28%
- vs Milford FC28 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 38%
- at Sekhukhune United5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 33%
- at Chippa United15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.