Monaco vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Monaco 2-1 Lens.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Monaco, 30% draw, 28% Lens — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monaco vs Lens
Line-ups
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 2VandersonD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 15E. DierD
- 20Flávio NazinhoD
- 37E. DiopM
- 8L. CamaraM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 11M. AblineF
- 29Paris Josua BrunnerF
- 9F. BalogunF
- 47S. BenzahraM
- 19Pape CabralM
- 7M. DetourbetF
- 16P. KöhnG
- 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
- 18T. MinaminoM
- 22M. SalisuD
- 49I. TouréM
- 40R. RisserG
- 32K. AntonioD
- 20J. TodiboD
- 14M. UdolD
- 2R. AguilarM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 28J. KadileM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 38Mezian MesloubM
- 19A. SimaF
- 7F. SotocaF
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 24J. GraditD
- 9T. HazardM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 31S. SagnanD
- 22M. SkóraśF
- 5A. BulatovićM
Form going into Monaco vs Lens
Monaco
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
Lens
Ligue 1
- D2-2away to Le Mans13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 15 |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monaco vs Lens
- 21 February 2026Lens 2–3 MonacoLigue 1
- 8 November 2025Monaco 1–4 LensLigue 1
- 17 May 2025Lens 4–0 MonacoLigue 1
- 1 September 2024Monaco 1–1 LensLigue 1
- 25 February 2024Lens 2–3 MonacoLigue 1
Leading scorers: Monaco and Lens
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin47
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monaco beat Lens 2–1. The model had made a win for Monaco its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Paris Brunner 32' for Monaco, Matthieu Udol 57' for Lens, Jonathan Gradit (own goal) 84' for Monaco.
How the call on Monaco v Lens has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Lens's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Monaco win42%▲ +4
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Lens win28%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.