Parma
vs
Udinese
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Parma 0–1 Udinese
The model makes it 30% Parma, 31% draw, 39% Udinese — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Parma 0.98, Udinese 1.21.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Udinese: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Parma are 18th on 4 points from 6 games; Udinese are 15th on 4 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Parma have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Inter.
- Udinese are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Torino.
- Last 6 meetings: Udinese 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Udinese 0–1 Parma.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Parma vs Udinese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Udinese at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Parma vs Udinese
Parma
- L0-3away to Inter10 October 2026
- W2-1Genoa20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
Udinese
- L1-2away to Torino12 October 2026
- L0-1Cagliari19 September 2026
- L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
What these results say
- Parma conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Parma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Udinese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Udinese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Udinese scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Parma vs Udinese
- 18 April 2026Udinese 0–1 ParmaSerie A
- 29 November 2025Parma 0–2 UdineseSerie A
- 1 March 2025Udinese 1–0 ParmaSerie A
- 16 September 2024Parma 2–3 UdineseSerie A
- 21 February 2021Parma 2–2 UdineseSerie A
- 18 October 2020Udinese 3–2 ParmaSerie A
Leading scorers: Parma and Udinese
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Udinese
GoalsAssists
- J. Ekkelenkamp31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Parma carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.85 for Udinese. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for Parma and 1.21 for Udinese. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Parma rate 0.68 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Udinese rate 1.03 and 1.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Udinese the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Parma against 1.21 for Udinese. Parma's attack/defence rating is 0.68/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.04 for Udinese.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Parma at home · Udinese away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ParmaUdinese
Parma are 17th after 6 Serie A matches (between 15th and 18th so far); Udinese are 15th after 6 (between 2nd and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Parma 6, Udinese 6.
Parma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Udinese have let in 2 there.
Udinese score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Parma have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Parma
- at Atalanta2 Nov · Serie Awin 18%
- vs Bologna7 Nov · Serie Awin 29%
- vs AS Roma21 Nov · Serie Awin 13%
Udinese
- vs AS Roma31 Oct · Serie Awin 17%
- at Venezia6 Nov · Serie Awin 51%
- at Bologna22 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.