Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Rennes.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Paris Saint Germain, 21% draw, 48% Rennes — fair odds of 3.23, 4.76 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Rennes at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 21L. HernandezD
- 33W. Zaire-EmeryM
- 17VitinhaM
- 87J. NevesM
- 14D. DoueF
- 10O. DembeleF
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 12L. DigneD
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
- 4L. BeraldoD
- 8F. RuizM
- 27D. FernandezM
- 9F. TorresF
- 11M. AklioucheM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 30B. SambaG
- 95P. FrankowskiD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 18M. NagidaD
- 21V. RongierM
- 11M. TamariM
- 17S. SzymanskiM
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 90I. SoumareM
- 9E. LepaulF
- 60K. BelazzougG
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 26Q. MerlinD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 10L. BlasF
- 70A. NordinF
- 35E. LegendreF
- 12E. MayendaF
- 65H. Do MarcolinoF
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes
- 13 February 2026Rennes 3–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 6 December 2025Paris Saint Germain 5–0 RennesLigue 1
- 8 March 2025Rennes 1–4 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 27 September 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–1 RennesLigue 1
- 3 April 2024Paris Saint Germain 1–0 RennesCoupe de France
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Rennes
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- A. Hakimi32
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul70
- B. Dia50
- S. Szymański41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Paris Saint Germain and Rennes drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rennes at 48% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: S. Szymanski 9' for Rennes, E. Lepaul 38' for Rennes, F. Torres 71' for Paris Saint Germain, F. Torres 82' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.07.