Paris Saint Germain
vs
Rennes
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 73% Paris Saint Germain, 16% draw, 11% Rennes — fair odds of 1.37, 6.25 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.79, Rennes 1.07.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes
- 13 February 2026Rennes 3–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 6 December 2025Paris Saint Germain 5–0 RennesLigue 1
- 8 March 2025Rennes 1–4 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 27 September 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–1 RennesLigue 1
- 3 April 2024Paris Saint Germain 1–0 RennesCoupe de France
- 25 February 2024Paris Saint Germain 1–1 RennesLigue 1
The two sides
Paris Saint Germain carry a model rating of 7.13 against 6.81 for Rennes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.79 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.07 for Rennes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paris Saint Germain rate 1.32 in attack and 0.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rennes rate 1.02 and 1.12.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain against 1.07 for Rennes. Paris Saint Germain's attack/defence rating is 1.32/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.12 for Rennes.