Le Havre vs Monaco Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Havre 0-1 Monaco.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Le Havre, 24% draw, 36% Monaco — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Le Havre at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Havre vs Monaco
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Lionel Mpasi NzauG
- 32Timothee PembeleD
- 15Ayumu SekoD
- 23Vincent SassoD
- 13Fodé DoucouréM
- 26Simon EbonogM
- 6Junior MwangaM
- 18Yanis ZouaouiM
- 14Rassoul NdiayeF
- 7Amir RichardsonF
- 25Ally SamattaF
- 27Enzo KoffiF
- 99Mory DiawG
- 33Djibril OuziadD
- 12Elias JelertD
- 17Kaito MizutaM
- 78Daren MosengoM
- 44Ismail BounebM
- 30Sota NakamuraF
- 9Josh MajaF
- 1Lukáš HrádeckýG
- 2VandersonD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 15Eric DierD
- 20NazinhoD
- 8Lamine CamaraM
- 6Denis ZakariaM
- 28Mamadou CoulibalyM
- 10Aleksandr GolovinM
- 17Stanis Idumbo MuzamboM
- 29Paris BrunnerF
- 16Philipp KöhnG
- 5Thilo KehrerD
- 49Ilane TouréM
- 19Pape CabralM
- 46Anis SoubeirM
- 7Mathys DetourbetF
- 14Mika BierethF
- 42Oumar KonatéF
- 47Safouane BenzahraM
Form going into Le Havre vs Monaco
Le Havre
No earlier matches on record this season.
Monaco
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 2 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Monaco
- 24 January 2026Le Havre 0–0 MonacoLigue 1
- 16 August 2025Monaco 3–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 26 April 2025Le Havre 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 22 September 2024Monaco 3–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 4 February 2024Monaco 1–1 Le HavreLigue 1
Leading scorers: Le Havre and Monaco
Le Havre
GoalsAssists
- J. Maja40
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monaco won 1–0 at Le Havre. The model had leaned towards a win for Le Havre at 40% and given a win for Monaco 36%. The goal: E. Dier 14' for Monaco. On expected goals it finished 0.43–1.39.