Pogon Szczecin
vs
Wisla Krakow
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 37% Pogon Szczecin, 21% draw, 42% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.70, 4.76 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Pogon Szczecin 2.06, Wisla Krakow 2.19.
Both teams to score: 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pogon Szczecin
- W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Wisla Krakow
- W2-1Wisla Plock7 August 2026
- L3-4away to Piast Gliwice1 August 2026
- W2-1GKS Katowice26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Pogon Szczecin
- P. Mukairu1 goals1 assists
Wisla Krakow
- Jordi Sánchez4 goals
- M. Božić2 goals1 assists
- Ángel Rodado1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pogon Szczecin carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.84 for Wisla Krakow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Pogon Szczecin L-W-W; Wisla Krakow W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 2.19 for Wisla Krakow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pogon Szczecin rate 0.79 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Krakow rate 1.26 and 1.38.
That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 78% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogon Szczecin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Krakow the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin against 2.19 for Wisla Krakow. Pogon Szczecin's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/1.38 for Wisla Krakow.