23 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Süper Lig prediction & result

Papara Park, Trabzon
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Trabzonspor 2-1 Başakşehir.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Trabzonspor, 23% draw, 53% Başakşehir — fair odds of 4.17, 4.35 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Başakşehir at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Trabzonspor94%Draw6%Başakşehir0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Salah
8'
19'
⚽E. Shomurodov (pen)
22'
O. Kemen
39'
B. Yildirim
46'
🔁B. Yildirimout: O. Ergun
⚽M. Salahassist: E. Muci
48'
58'
🔁A. Fayzullaevout: D. Selke
58'
🔁J. Kaluzinskiout: I. Brnic
61'
D. Selke
🔁E. Muciout: C. Ozkacar
70'
🔁A. Simsirout: N. Saviolo
70'
70'
🔁O. Sahinerout: M. Karbownik
M. Salah
79'
79'
🔁A. Skov Olsenout: U. Bozok
🔁R. Malinovskyiout: B. Bouchouari
81'
C. Nwaiwu
83'
🔁P. Onuachuout: O. Tufan
87'
89'
O. Ergun
S. Savic
89'
F. Tekke
90+3'
•M. Salah
90+4'

Match stats — Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir

52%Possession48%
19Shots12
8On target4
5Corners1
2.04xG1.81

Goals against chances

Trabzonspor2 from 2.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
Başakşehir1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Trabzonspor 4-4-1-1
  • 24A. OnanaG
  • 55S. Lopes CabralD
  • 27C. NwaiwuD
  • 15S. SavicD
  • 19M. EskihellacD
  • 7E. MuciM
  • 57M. KabasakalM
  • 17R. MalinovskyiM
  • 58A. SimsirM
  • 10M. SalahF
  • 30P. OnuachuF
Substitutes
  • 1A. YildirimG
  • 4S. AkaydinD
  • 39C. OzkacarD
  • 20W. PinaD
  • 11O. TufanM
  • 8B. BouchouariM
  • 14U. NayirF
  • 77M. MimarogluF
  • 70N. SavioloF
Coach: Fatih Tekke
Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. SengezerG
  • 42O. SahinerD
  • 23E. BayramD
  • 3J. OpokuD
  • 21C. OperiD
  • 8O. KemenM
  • 18J. KaluzinskiM
  • 70A. Skov OlsenM
  • 14E. ShomurodovM
  • 11A. FayzullaevM
  • 91B. YildirimF
Substitutes
  • 98D. Dilmen
  • 33M. KarbownikD
  • 15H. GurelerD
  • 27O. BaD
  • 19B. OzcanM
  • 4O. ErgunM
  • 20U. GunesM
  • 9D. SelkeF
  • 77I. BrnicF
Coach: Nuri Sahin

Form going into Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir

Trabzonspor

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Ferencvarosi TC20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Kasımpaşa15 August 2026

Başakşehir

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Inter Turku30 July 2026
  • D1-1Inter Turku22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Trabzonspor11812268+1825
8Başakşehir115241917+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir

  • 19 April 2026Trabzonspor 1–1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 3 March 2026Başakşehir 2–4 TrabzonsporTürkiye Kupası
  • 24 November 2025Başakşehir 3–4 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 15 March 2025Başakşehir 0–3 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 19 October 2024Trabzonspor 1–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig

The full Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir record →

Leading scorers: Trabzonspor and Başakşehir

Trabzonspor

GoalsAssists

  • Mohamed Salah93
  • Franculino Djú42
  • E. Muçi36

Başakşehir

GoalsAssists

  • E. Shomurodov81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Başakşehir at 53% and given a win for Trabzonspor 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Salah 8' for Trabzonspor, E. Shomurodov (penalty) 19' for Başakşehir, M. Salah 48' for Trabzonspor. On expected goals it finished 2.04–1.81.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.