Deportivo Riestra vs Boca Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Riestra 3-0 Boca Juniors.
Before kick-off the model made it 13% Deportivo Riestra, 26% draw, 61% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 7.69, 3.85 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 61% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Riestra vs Boca Juniors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ignacio ArceG
- 24Facundo MiñoD
- 22Cristian PazD
- 2Carlos QuintanaD
- 36Mariano BracamonteM
- 8Milton CelizM
- 14Pablo MonjeM
- 15Nicolás SansotreM
- 10Braian SánchezF
- 11Alexander DíazF
- 7Antony AlonsoF
- 27Yonatan GoitiaD
- 9Nicolás BenegasF
- 21Tomás GonzalezF
- 6Ignacio GariglioD
- 16Nicolas WatsonM
- 23Marino ArzamendiaG
- 3Eric TovoD
- 13Rodrigo GalloD
- 20Thiago LauroM
- 1Álvaro MonteroG
- 27Malcom BraidaD
- 2Lautaro Di LolloD
- 26Marco PellegrinoD
- 3Lautaro BlancoD
- 18Milton DelgadoM
- 15Williams AlarcónM
- 21Kevin ZenónM
- 25Santiago AscacíbarM
- 20Alan VelascoM
- 19Leonel FloresF
- 22Sebastián VillaF
- 11Ángel RomeroF
- 10Tomás ArandaM
- 16Miguel MerentielF
- 23Camilo Rey DomenechM
- 13Javier GarcíaG
- 12Leandro BreyG
- 32Ayrton CostaD
- 4Nicolás FigalD
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 12 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Boca Juniors
- 25 January 2026Boca Juniors 1–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 October 2024Boca Juniors 1–1 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Deportivo Riestra and Boca Juniors
Deportivo Riestra
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Deportivo Riestra beat Boca Juniors 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Boca Juniors at 61% and given a win for Deportivo Riestra 13%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 8 matches like this one. The goals: B. Sanchez 7' for Deportivo Riestra, A. Alonso 23' for Deportivo Riestra, A. Diaz 38' for Deportivo Riestra. On expected goals it finished 1.96–0.60.