Fleury 91
vs
Gobelins
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Fleury 91 1–0 Gobelins
The model makes it 56% Fleury 91, 25% draw, 19% Gobelins — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Fleury 91 1.89, Gobelins 0.89.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Fleury 91: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fleury 91 are 9th on 15 points from 10 games; Gobelins are 10th on 15 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Fleury 91 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Bourg-en-bresse 01.
- Gobelins have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Rouen.
- Last 6 meetings: Gobelins 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Fleury 91 1–0 Gobelins.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fleury 91 vs Gobelins
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleury 91 at 56% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fleury 91 vs Gobelins
Fleury 91
- W1-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 0117 October 2026
- W3-2Caen3 October 2026
- L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026
- D1-1Thionville Lusitanos19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Valenciennes12 September 2026
Gobelins
- W3-1Rouen17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Concarneau3 October 2026
- W1-0Bastia26 September 2026
- D1-1Bourg-en-bresse 0119 September 2026
- L0-2away to Caen12 September 2026
What these results say
- Fleury 91 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fleury 91 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fleury 91.
- Gobelins scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gobelins conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 | Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fleury 91
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
Gobelins
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fleury 91 vs Gobelins
- 30 January 2026Fleury 91 1–0 GobelinsLigue 3
- 22 August 2025Gobelins 1–0 Fleury 91Ligue 3
- 16 July 2025Gobelins 2–0 Fleury 91Friendlies Clubs
- 30 April 2022Gobelins 0–0 Fleury 91National 2 - Group B
- 4 December 2021Fleury 91 1–3 GobelinsNational 2 - Group B
- 26 January 2020Fleury 91 0–1 GobelinsNational 2 - Group B
The two sides
Fleury 91 carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.05 for Gobelins. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Fleury 91 and 0.89 for Gobelins. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fleury 91 rate 0.60 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gobelins rate 0.38 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleury 91 a 4.1% chance of the title and Gobelins 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleury 91 the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Fleury 91 against 0.89 for Gobelins. Fleury 91's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.94 for Gobelins.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fleury 91 at home · Gobelins away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Fleury 91 10, Gobelins 10.
Gobelins score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Fleury 91 have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fleury 91
- at Concarneau7 Nov · Ligue 3win 35%
- vs Rouen21 Nov · Ligue 3win 41%
- vs Bastia5 Dec · Ligue 3win 41%
- at La Roche VF12 Dec · Ligue 3win 27%
- vs Le Puy Foot16 Jan · Ligue 3win 47%
Gobelins
- vs La Roche VF7 Nov · Ligue 3win 30%
- at Le Puy Foot21 Nov · Ligue 3win 21%
- vs Versailles5 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
- at Amiens12 Dec · Ligue 3win 19%
- vs Cannes16 Jan · Ligue 3win 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.