10 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Major League Soccer prediction & result

BMO Field, Toronto
Referee: Allen Chapman, USA
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Toronto FC 2-1 CF Montreal.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Toronto FC, 25% draw, 24% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Toronto FC at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toronto FC0%Draw6%CF Montreal94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Luka Gavranout: William Yarbrough
23'
51'
⚽Daniel Rios
55'
Brayan Vera
🔁Jonathan Osorioout: Djordje Mihailovic
61'
72'
🔁Victor Loturiout: Samuel Piette
72'
🔁Alexis Sanchezout: Fabian Herbers
🔁Alonsoout: Lewis Morgan
82'
84'
Brandan Craig
86'
🔁Daniel Riosout: Wikelman·Carmona
86'
🔁Brandan Craigout: Efrain Morales
87'
Luca Petrasso
⚽Lewis Morganassist: Niklas Dorsch
90+3'
⚽Djordje Mihailovicassist: Theo Corbeanu
90+5'
Richie Laryea
90+6'

Match stats — Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

52%Possession48%
14Shots16
5On target7
8Corners6
1.7xG1.57

Goals against chances

Toronto FC2 from 1.70 xGabout what the chances were worth
CF Montreal1 from 1.57 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toronto FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 13B. KuscevicD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 21J. OsorioM
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 7T. CorbeanuF
  • 9J. SargentF
  • 20D. SallóiF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 11D. EtienneF
  • 96R. ChukwuD
  • 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 10D. MihailovićM
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 90L. MorganF
  • 27A. PiedrahitaF
Coach: R. Fraser
CF Montreal 3-4-2-1
  • 1S. BrezaG
  • 2J. NealD
  • 5B. CraigD
  • 4B. VeraD
  • 27D. BugajM
  • 22V. LoturiM
  • 8M. LongstaffM
  • 13L. PetrassoM
  • 14D. RíosM
  • 10A. SánchezM
  • 9P. OwusuF
Substitutes
  • 16W. CarmonaM
  • 21F. HerbersF
  • 41S. KeitaG
  • 24E. MoralesD
  • 7D. PereiraM
  • 6S. PietteM
  • 28V. RadojevićD
  • 23N. StreitM
  • 18H. SynchukM
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy

Form going into Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

Toronto FC

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
  • L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
  • W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
  • D4-4Chicago Fire5 September 2026

CF Montreal

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
  • L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
  • L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.
  • CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Toronto FC34912135267-1539
15CF Montreal3468203769-3226

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

  • 16 July 2026CF Montreal 0–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 30 August 2025Toronto FC 1–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 17 May 2025CF Montreal 1–6 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 30 April 2025Toronto FC 2–2 CF MontrealCanadian Championship
  • 20 July 2024CF Montreal 0–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Toronto FC and CF Montreal

Toronto FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 52 league goals as a side.

CF Montreal

GoalsAssists

  • P. Owusu156

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Toronto FC beat CF Montreal 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Toronto FC at 51%. The goals: Daniel Rios 51' for CF Montreal, Lewis Morgan 90+3' for Toronto FC, Djordje Mihailovic 90+5' for Toronto FC. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.57.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Toronto FC a 34.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.8% after a win, 40.9% after a draw, 51.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.8%, 10.2 points lower than before the match.

For CF Montreal the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 97.0% going in: 93.5% after a win, 97.4% after a draw, 98.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 98.8%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Toronto FC v CF Montreal has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Toronto FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Toronto FC win51%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. CF Montreal win24%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.