Toronto FC
vs
CF Montreal
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Toronto FC 2–1 CF Montreal
The model makes it 48% Toronto FC, 27% draw, 25% CF Montreal — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Toronto FC 1.99, CF Montreal 1.10.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Toronto FC vs CF Montreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toronto FC at 48% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Toronto FC vs CF Montreal
Toronto FC
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
- W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
- D4-4Chicago Fire5 September 2026
- D1-1New York City FC29 August 2026
CF Montreal
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
- L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
What these results say
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal did not win any of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Toronto FC and CF Montreal
Toronto FC
No leading scorers listed yet.
CF Montreal
- P. Owusu13 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Toronto FC carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.27 for CF Montreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Toronto FC and 1.10 for CF Montreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toronto FC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Montreal rate 0.51 and 1.63.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toronto FC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Toronto FC against 1.1 for CF Montreal. Toronto FC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.63 for CF Montreal.