Obolon'-Brovar
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Obolon'-Brovar 0–1 Zorya Luhansk
The model makes it 28% Obolon'-Brovar, 27% draw, 45% Zorya Luhansk — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Obolon'-Brovar 1.14, Zorya Luhansk 1.61.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
One-sided: Zorya Luhansk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Obolon'-Brovar's rating is built from 40 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Zorya Luhansk's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Obolon'-Brovar are 14th on 8 points from 11 games; Zorya Luhansk are 7th on 18 points from 12 games — Premier League.
- Obolon'-Brovar are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Livyi Bereh.
- Zorya Luhansk have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to LNZ Cherkasy.
- Last 6 meetings: Zorya Luhansk 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Obolon'-Brovar 3–3 Zorya Luhansk.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Obolon'-Brovar vs Zorya Luhansk
Has the model earned this number?
Zorya Luhansk at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Obolon'-Brovar vs Zorya Luhansk
Obolon'-Brovar
Premier League
- D1-1Livyi Bereh6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk30 October 2026
- L0-3away to Polessya23 October 2026
- W2-0Veres Rivne16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chornomorets18 September 2026
Zorya Luhansk
Premier League
- L1-2LNZ Cherkasy8 November 2026
- W1-0Epitsentr Dunayivtsi2 November 2026
- D0-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk24 October 2026
- W2-1Chornomorets17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Livyi Bereh12 October 2026
What these results say
- Obolon'-Brovar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Obolon'-Brovar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Obolon'-Brovar had two goals or fewer.
- Zorya Luhansk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Obolon'-Brovar | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 8 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Obolon'-Brovar
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 79% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Obolon'-Brovar vs Zorya Luhansk
- 5 April 2026Obolon'-Brovar 3–3 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 11 October 2025Zorya Luhansk 1–1 Obolon'-BrovarFriendlies Clubs
- 27 September 2025Zorya Luhansk 0–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 23 March 2025Obolon'-Brovar 1–2 Zorya LuhanskFriendlies Clubs
- 7 March 2025Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 12 October 2024Obolon'-Brovar 2–2 Zorya LuhanskFriendlies Clubs
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zorya Luhansk the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar against 1.61 for Zorya Luhansk. Obolon'-Brovar's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.56 for Zorya Luhansk.
How the model reaches 45% for Zorya Luhansk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Zorya Luhansk to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Obolon'-Brovar's ratings add 7 points and Zorya Luhansk's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Obolon'-Brovar's ratings36%+7
- Zorya Luhansk's ratings45%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Obolon'-Brovar at home · Zorya Luhansk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Obolon'-Brovar 11, Zorya Luhansk 12.
Obolon'-Brovar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Zorya Luhansk have let in 3 there.
Zorya Luhansk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Obolon'-Brovar have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Obolon'-Brovar
- vs Karpaty5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Bukovyna27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Kudrivka6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 42%
Zorya Luhansk
- vs Kudrivka5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 63%
- at Kolos Kovalivka12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Kryvbas KR27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Polessya6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.