Novorizontino
vs
Ponte Preta
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Novorizontino 3–0 Ponte Preta
The model makes it 77% Novorizontino, 15% draw, 8% Ponte Preta — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Novorizontino 3.53, Ponte Preta 0.51.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Novorizontino are 3rd on 54 points from 31 games; Ponte Preta are bottom on 13 points from 30 games — Serie B.
- Novorizontino have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Goias.
- Ponte Preta have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Botafogo SP.
- Last 6 meetings: Novorizontino 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 June 2026, ended Ponte Preta 0–2 Novorizontino.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novorizontino at 77% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
- D0-0São Bernardo25 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ceara18 September 2026
- D1-1Cuiaba13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botafogo SP9 September 2026
Ponte Preta
- L0-2away to Botafogo SP29 September 2026
- W1-0CRB20 September 2026
- L0-6away to Londrina15 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sport Recife11 September 2026
- L0-2São Bernardo6 September 2026
What these results say
- Novorizontino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Novorizontino | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 54 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 30 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
- 22 June 2026Ponte Preta 0–2 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 15 January 2025Novorizontino 0–1 Ponte PretaPaulista - A1
- 1 October 2024Novorizontino 2–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 15 June 2024Ponte Preta 1–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 3 March 2024Ponte Preta 1–1 NovorizontinoPaulista - A1
- 28 October 2023Novorizontino 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
Leading scorers: Novorizontino and Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
- Robson14 goals5 assists
- Romulo8 goals8 assists
Ponte Preta
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Novorizontino carry a model rating of 6.6 against 5.79 for Ponte Preta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.53 goals for Novorizontino and 0.51 for Ponte Preta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Novorizontino rate 0.79 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ponte Preta rate 0.33 and 2.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Novorizontino a 25.9% chance of the title and Ponte Preta 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.53 expected goals for Novorizontino against 0.51 for Ponte Preta. Novorizontino's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/2.75 for Ponte Preta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Novorizontino at home · Ponte Preta away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Novorizontino 31, Ponte Preta 30.
Novorizontino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Ponte Preta have let in 16 there.
Ponte Preta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Novorizontino have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Novorizontino
- at Vila Nova18 Oct · Serie Bwin 37%
- at Atletico Goianiense24 Oct · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Operario-PR31 Oct · Serie Bwin 53%
- vs Fortaleza EC7 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
Ponte Preta
- vs Atletico Goianiense16 Oct · Serie Bwin 17%
- vs Fortaleza EC24 Oct · Serie Bwin 15%
- at Criciuma31 Oct · Serie Bwin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.