30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Samgurali vs Rustavi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

26 May Stadium, Tsqaltubo
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Samgurali 1-1 Rustavi.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Samgurali, 29% draw, 37% Rustavi — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rustavi at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Samgurali4%Draw92%Rustavi4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
N. Chikovani
L. Gilmore
16'
27'
David Oliveira
66'
🔁A. Gujabidzeout: K. Kakashvili
66'
🔁Jeanout: L. Parkadze
66'
🔁K. Ceijasout: M. Gambos
68'
⚽V. Patsatsia
O. Patarkatsishvili
75'
🔁I. Siradzeout: D. Krasovski
76'
🔁I. Bidzinashviliout: Gean Rodrigues
76'
🔁T. Gaprindashviliout: N. Tsetskhladze
76'
⚽N. Tsetskhladzeassist: G. Gogia
82'
83'
🔁Y. Nakanoout: N. Japaridze
86'
🔁S. Kessiout: I. Iakobidze
L. Gilmore
90+2'
L. Gilmore
90+2'

Match stats — Samgurali vs Rustavi

57%Possession43%
8Shots11
5On target5
4Corners8

Line-ups

Samgurali
  • 21A. Siukaev
  • 13L. Gegetchkori
  • 39Ryan
  • 4O. Patarkatsishvili
  • 22G. Gogia
  • 10L. Gilmore
  • 20Vinicius Vianna
  • 8I. Bidzinashvili
  • 9T. Gaprindashvili
  • 19I. Siradze
  • 28Claudio Cebolinha
Substitutes
  • 12A. Kasradze
  • 11D. Krasovski
  • 14T. Goletiani
  • 15Gean Rodrigues
  • 17N. Tsetskhladze
  • 25M. Shatirishvili
  • 26Z. Iashvili
  • 27L. Shergelashvili
  • 33Isac Martins
Coach: Giorgi Oniani
Rustavi
  • 21P. Beruashvili
  • 27M. Kapanadze
  • 4David Oliveira
  • 3V. Patsatsia
  • 19N. Chikovani
  • 22Y. Nakano
  • 13A. Gujabidze
  • 5K. Ceijas
  • 11S. Kessi
  • 10P. Osei
  • 9Jean
Substitutes
  • 35J. Roland
  • 2S. Andghuladze
  • 8K. Kakashvili
  • 12T. Tarkashvili
  • 18N. Japaridze
  • 20L. Parkadze
  • 23M. Gambos
  • 24I. Iakobidze
  • 30G. Chkheidze
Coach: Giorgi Tsetsadze

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Samgurali30115144355-1238
4Rustavi3015783626+1052

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.