NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 NK Slaven Belupo
The model makes it 42% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 27% draw, 31% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.52, NK Slaven Belupo 1.23.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's rating is built from 49 Croatian HNL matches and NK Slaven Belupo's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.
Key facts
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 9th on 11 points from 13 games; NK Slaven Belupo are 7th on 16 points from 13 games — HNL.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rudes.
- NK Slaven Belupo have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-3 win away to HNK Gorica.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Slaven Belupo
Has the model earned this number?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Slaven Belupo
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL
- L0-1Rudes6 November 2026
- L1-3NK Osijek1 November 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica24 October 2026
- W2-0Istra 196117 October 2026
- L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL
- W5-3away to HNK Gorica7 November 2026
- L0-2Istra 196130 October 2026
- W2-1away to NK Varazdin24 October 2026
- L1-5Dinamo Zagreb18 October 2026
- W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026
What these results say
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb had two goals or fewer.
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NK Slaven Belupo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Slaven Belupo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Chance to finish in the bottom one · 18% today
NK Slaven Belupo
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 6 September 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 21 April 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 10 March 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebCup
- 13 February 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 16 January 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–4 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebFriendlies Clubs
- 8 November 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Slaven Belupo
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski92
- J. Mitrović32
- L. Banovec32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Slaven Belupo (seventh, with NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ninth), while our numbers lean to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.48 in attack and 1.57 in defence, NK Slaven Belupo 0.66 and 2.03 (lower is better in defence), so NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.23 for NK Slaven Belupo. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.03 for NK Slaven Belupo.
How the model reaches 42% for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's ratings take away 3 points and NK Slaven Belupo's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's ratings41%−3
- NK Slaven Belupo's ratings42%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home · NK Slaven Belupo away
League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Slaven Belupo
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 9th after 13 HNL matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); NK Slaven Belupo are 7th after 13 (between 6th and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 13, NK Slaven Belupo 13.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); NK Slaven Belupo have let in 3 there.
NK Slaven Belupo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- at HNK Rijeka7 Dec · HNLwin 21%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb14 Dec · HNLwin 19%
- at NK Varazdin19 Dec · HNLwin 21%
- at Istra 196123 Jan · HNLwin 22%
NK Slaven Belupo
- vs HNK Hajduk Split5 Dec · HNLwin 23%
- vs Rudes12 Dec · HNLwin 46%
- at HNK Rijeka19 Dec · HNLwin 22%
- at Dinamo Zagreb23 Jan · HNLwin 9%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.