Newport County
vs
York
League Two prediction
Our model says: Newport County 1–2 York
The model makes it 30% Newport County, 27% draw, 43% York — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Newport County 1.41, York 1.94.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Newport County are 17th on 9 points from 8 games; York are 4th on 14 points from 8 games — League Two.
- Newport County are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Grimsby.
- York have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Gillingham.
- Last 6 meetings: Newport County 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 January 2016, ended York 0–1 Newport County.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Newport County vs York
Has the model earned this number?
It puts York at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Newport County vs York
Newport County
- W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Northampton5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City1 September 2026
York
- W3-0Gillingham26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chesterfield19 September 2026
- W4-0Swindon Town12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Crewe5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Cheltenham1 September 2026
What these results say
- Newport County failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newport County conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- York scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Newport County | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Newport County vs York
- 16 January 2016York 0–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 5 September 2015Newport County 0–3 YorkLeague Two
- 25 April 2015York 0–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 11 October 2014Newport County 3–1 YorkLeague Two
- 26 April 2014York 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 19 October 2013Newport County 3–0 YorkLeague Two
Leading scorers: Newport County and York
Newport County
- S. Gwengwe5 goals
York
- A. Newby6 goals1 assist
- O. Pearce3 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Newport County carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.3 for York. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Newport County and 1.94 for York. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newport County rate 0.48 in attack and 2.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; York rate 0.66 and 2.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newport County a 0.1% chance of the title and York 21.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives York the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Newport County against 1.94 for York. Newport County's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.02 for York.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newport County at home · York away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Newport County 8, York 8.
Newport County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); York have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Newport County
- at Rotherham20 Oct · League Twowin 28%
- at Cheltenham24 Oct · League Twowin 29%
- vs Chesterfield30 Oct · League Twowin 32%
York
- vs Accrington Stanley20 Oct · League Twowin 52%
- vs Port Vale24 Oct · League Twowin 44%
- at Grimsby31 Oct · League Twowin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.