Oldham
vs
Cheltenham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Oldham 2–1 Cheltenham
The model makes it 41% Oldham, 27% draw, 32% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Oldham 1.82, Cheltenham 1.49.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Oldham are 20th on 7 points from 8 games; Cheltenham are 2nd on 15 points from 8 games — League Two.
- Oldham have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Salford City.
- Cheltenham are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Chesterfield.
- Last 6 meetings: Oldham 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Oldham 2–1 Cheltenham.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Oldham vs Cheltenham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oldham at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Oldham vs Cheltenham
Oldham
- L1-4Salford City26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Rochdale19 September 2026
- L1-2Chesterfield12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tranmere5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town1 September 2026
Cheltenham
- W2-1Chesterfield26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Crawley Town12 September 2026
- D2-2Grimsby5 September 2026
- W3-2York1 September 2026
What these results say
- Oldham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cheltenham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cheltenham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cheltenham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 2 | Cheltenham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Oldham vs Cheltenham
- 17 January 2026Oldham 2–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 20 September 2025Cheltenham 0–3 OldhamLeague Two
- 26 January 2021Cheltenham 2–0 OldhamLeague Two
- 3 November 2020Oldham 2–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 4 January 2020Cheltenham 3–0 OldhamLeague Two
- 5 October 2019Oldham 1–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Oldham and Cheltenham
Oldham
- C. Kavanagh4 goals3 assists
Cheltenham
- C. McCann7 goals
- A. Weimann4 goals2 assists
- J. Evans3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Oldham carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.14 for Cheltenham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Oldham and 1.49 for Cheltenham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oldham rate 0.51 in attack and 2.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cheltenham rate 0.58 and 2.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cheltenham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oldham a 1.3% chance of the title and Cheltenham 3.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oldham the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Oldham against 1.49 for Cheltenham. Oldham's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.45 for Cheltenham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Oldham at home · Cheltenham away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Oldham 8, Cheltenham 8.
Oldham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Cheltenham have let in 2 there.
Cheltenham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Oldham have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Oldham
- at Walsall20 Oct · League Twowin 31%
- at Barnet24 Oct · League Twowin 27%
- vs Crawley Town31 Oct · League Twowin 47%
Cheltenham
- vs Fleetwood Town20 Oct · League Twowin 40%
- vs Newport County24 Oct · League Twowin 45%
- at Tranmere31 Oct · League Twowin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.