Grimsby
vs
Northampton
League Two prediction
Our model says: Grimsby 1–0 Northampton
The model makes it 46% Grimsby, 28% draw, 26% Northampton — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Grimsby 1.76, Northampton 1.02.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Grimsby are 6th on 13 points from 8 games; Northampton are 22nd on 6 points from 7 games — League Two.
- Grimsby have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Newport County.
- Northampton have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rotherham.
- Last 6 meetings: Northampton 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 February 2023, ended Northampton 1–2 Grimsby.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Grimsby vs Northampton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grimsby at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Grimsby vs Northampton
Grimsby
- L1-2away to Newport County26 September 2026
- W2-0Crawley Town19 September 2026
- W2-0Bristol Rovers12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cheltenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Accrington Stanley1 September 2026
Northampton
- L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shrewsbury12 September 2026
- W1-0Newport County5 September 2026
- D1-1Crawley Town1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gillingham29 August 2026
What these results say
- Grimsby scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
- Northampton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Northampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Grimsby | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Grimsby vs Northampton
- 18 February 2023Northampton 1–2 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 6 August 2022Grimsby 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 29 February 2020Grimsby 0–3 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 23 November 2019Northampton 2–0 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 16 March 2019Grimsby 0–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 24 November 2018Northampton 2–2 GrimsbyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Grimsby and Northampton
Grimsby
- K. Green3 goals2 assists
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Grimsby carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.11 for Northampton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Grimsby and 1.02 for Northampton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grimsby rate 0.59 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Northampton rate 0.47 and 2.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Grimsby a 17.2% chance of the title and Northampton 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grimsby the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Grimsby against 1.02 for Northampton. Grimsby's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.05 for Northampton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Grimsby at home · Northampton away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Grimsby 8, Northampton 7.
Grimsby score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Northampton have let in 1 there.
Northampton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Grimsby have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Grimsby
- at Rochdale20 Oct · League Twowin 41%
- at Gillingham24 Oct · League Twowin 42%
- vs York31 Oct · League Twowin 40%
Northampton
- vs Tranmere20 Oct · League Twowin 43%
- vs Colchester24 Oct · League Twowin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.