Crewe
vs
Rochdale
League Two prediction
Our model says: Crewe 1–0 Rochdale
The model makes it 42% Crewe, 30% draw, 28% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Crewe 1.48, Rochdale 1.01.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Crewe are 9th on 12 points from 8 games; Rochdale are 16th on 10 points from 8 games — League Two.
- Crewe are unbeaten in their last 5 (0 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Rotherham.
- Rochdale are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win away to Fleetwood Town.
- Last 6 meetings: Crewe 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2023, ended Crewe 1–1 Rochdale.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Crewe vs Rochdale
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Crewe at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Crewe vs Rochdale
Crewe
- D1-1away to Rotherham26 September 2026
- D1-1Shrewsbury19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester12 September 2026
- D1-1York5 September 2026
- D2-2Walsall1 September 2026
Rochdale
- W2-1away to Fleetwood Town26 September 2026
- W2-0Oldham19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Walsall12 September 2026
- L1-4Gillingham5 September 2026
- W3-0Shrewsbury1 September 2026
What these results say
- Crewe went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Crewe did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Crewe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rochdale scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Crewe | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 16 | Rochdale | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Crewe vs Rochdale
- 25 February 2023Crewe 1–1 RochdaleLeague Two
- 30 July 2022Rochdale 1–2 CreweLeague Two
- 24 April 2021Crewe 1–1 RochdaleLeague One
- 9 January 2021Rochdale 3–3 CreweLeague One
- 16 February 2016Rochdale 2–2 CreweLeague One
- 6 February 2016Crewe 2–0 RochdaleLeague One
Leading scorers: Crewe and Rochdale
Crewe
- J. March3 goals
Rochdale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Crewe carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.05 for Rochdale. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Crewe and 1.01 for Rochdale. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crewe rate 0.46 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rochdale rate 0.45 and 2.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crewe a 1.8% chance of the title and Rochdale 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Crewe the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Crewe against 1.01 for Rochdale. Crewe's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.21 for Rochdale.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Crewe at home · Rochdale away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Crewe 8, Rochdale 8.
Crewe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Rochdale have let in 2 there.
Rochdale score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Crewe have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Crewe
- at Exeter City20 Oct · League Twowin 30%
- at Chesterfield24 Oct · League Twowin 29%
- vs Barnet31 Oct · League Twowin 34%
Rochdale
- vs Grimsby20 Oct · League Twowin 30%
- vs Accrington Stanley24 Oct · League Twowin 40%
- at Port Vale31 Oct · League Twowin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.