Salford City
vs
Crawley Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Salford City 1–0 Crawley Town
The model makes it 49% Salford City, 28% draw, 23% Crawley Town — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Salford City 1.78, Crawley Town 0.86.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Salford City are 7th on 13 points from 8 games; Crawley Town are bottom on 4 points from 7 games — League Two.
- Salford City are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 4-1 win away to Oldham.
- Crawley Town have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Grimsby.
- Last 6 meetings: Salford City 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Crawley Town 0–0 Salford City.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Salford City vs Crawley Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Salford City at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Salford City vs Crawley Town
Salford City
- W4-1away to Oldham26 September 2026
- W1-0Swindon Town19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rotherham12 September 2026
- W1-0Port Vale5 September 2026
- W2-1Newport County1 September 2026
Crawley Town
- L0-2away to Grimsby19 September 2026
- L1-3Cheltenham12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Accrington Stanley5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Northampton1 September 2026
- L0-2Bristol Rovers29 August 2026
What these results say
- Salford City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Salford City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Salford City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Salford City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Salford City vs Crawley Town
- 2 May 2026Crawley Town 0–0 Salford CityLeague Two
- 29 November 2025Salford City 4–3 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 13 January 2024Crawley Town 0–1 Salford CityLeague Two
- 12 August 2023Salford City 1–1 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 28 January 2023Crawley Town 3–2 Salford CityLeague Two
- 3 September 2022Salford City 2–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Salford City and Crawley Town
Salford City
- J. Powell3 goals2 assists
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Salford City carry a model rating of 6.2 against 5.93 for Crawley Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Salford City and 0.86 for Crawley Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Salford City rate 0.51 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crawley Town rate 0.38 and 2.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Salford City a 3.7% chance of the title and Crawley Town 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Salford City the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Salford City against 0.86 for Crawley Town. Salford City's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/2.4 for Crawley Town.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Salford City at home · Crawley Town away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Salford City 8, Crawley Town 7.
Salford City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Crawley Town have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Salford City
- at Bristol Rovers20 Oct · League Twowin 33%
- at Walsall26 Oct · League Twowin 33%
- vs Exeter City31 Oct · League Twowin 39%
Crawley Town
- vs Shrewsbury20 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- vs Tranmere24 Oct · League Twowin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.